Derby Trail Forums - 3/29: Aqueduct ($123k P6 C/O; $46k NYRA Bets P5 C/O)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$123k P6 C/O starts here..

Exceed the Goal the right price here as her 11/29/18 win would ace this. Duggan good with new additions to barn and adds hustling Carmouche who factors given need to stay within reach of potential loose leader Speed Khaleesi. Malarkey gets big class relief, dropping below level of claim. Two Hot Betty & Golden Vale obvious possibilities..

Best Value: #5 Exceed the Goal 6-1 WON ($9.50)
Next Best: #8 Malarkey 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Two Hot Betty 2-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Golden Vale 3-1 2nd

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (NYRA Bets P5, P3, DD)

$46k NYRA Bets P5 C/O starts here..

'Just' 6, but a well-matched group with all kinds of classic handicapping maxims in view. Floss Dancer ('Aqueduct Mike' Tannuzzo) and Gentle Annie (Sciacca) drop from stake and ALW events while Amanda Lane (Barker) raises in class going 2nd off the break. Whyisshesoolucky (Maymo) comes back v. winners for the first time, while Party in the Sand (Martin) is first off the claim..

Most Likely: #2 Floss Dancer 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Amanda Lane 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Gentle Annie 5-2 WON ($8.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Whyisshesoolucky 6-1 3rd

6th: MCLM/$25k, 3yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Middling looking bunch which makes you look hard at Gullo firster Cool Your Boots. Dr Burt cuts out 110 yards from last try where he was corraled late..

Most Likely: #3 Dr Burt 2-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Cool Your Boots 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Flat Rate 4-1 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Never Felt Better 9-5 2nd

7th: CLM-NY, 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Found this to be day's trickiest read. Wrong Ben & Blue Belt are stretchout speeds and while the pace would be honest if they go together, race will get cockeyed if one or the other isn't forward. Analyze the Odds and Papa Shot need some set up help for their attack from mid-pack, while Playthatfunnymusic (8-1) might sit the best trip behind whatever speed that proves out. Drops from ALW company and can score at a square price with a return to the effort that won here in December..

Best Value: #5 Playthatfunnymusic 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1a (POE) Papa Shot 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Analyze the Odds 9-5 4th
Super Add: #6 Blue Belt 7-2 2nd

8th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (DD)

Two faves may be something OK and Dovey Lovey is supposed to win this kind of race if she isn't ruined (like former stablemate Sippican Harbor), but Figure It Out aired in debut before excusable placement in 2nd start. Will be a price and comes with a backstory..

Best Value: #5 Figure It Out 5-1 WON ($14.20)
Next Best: #1 Don't Rush 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Avelina 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Dovey Lovey 7-2 6th

9th: MCLM/$30k-NY, 3yo, 1m

Best Value: #1 Mister Muy Bien 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Jack Bo 7-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Tazmonian Devil 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Awesome Adversary 8-1 2nd

P6 Grid:

4: 5-8 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)
5: 2-3 (A), 5 (B), 6 (C)
6: 3 (A), - (B), 2-8-9 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
8: 1-5 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A's: 2x2x1x2x2x2 = 32 x $2 = $64

$2 PICK SIX (5/5/9/1/5/5,6) PAID $93.00 (5 OF 6)

P5 Grid:

5: 2-3 (A), 5 (B), 6 (C)
6: 3 (A), 8-9 (B), 2 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6-7 (C)
8: 1-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 NYRA BETS LATE PICK 5 (5/9/1/5/5,6) PAID $1,354.75

P4 Grid:

6: 3-8 (A), 9 (B), 2 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), 2 (B), 3-4-6-7 (C)
8: 1-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 3-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 PICK FOUR (9/1/5/5,6) PAID $81.12

Good luck!
Steve