Derby Trail Forums - 2/2: Gulfstream (8th-12th); Santa Anita (Jackpot Force Out)

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Rainbow P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mass Appeal a half to Tapwrit; Haunt a half to Elate..

Best Value: #8 Haunt 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Brother Aaron 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Final Say 3-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Fortune's Fool 15-1 2nd

8th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Mr Chaplin 15-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #1 Gran Red 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Aghost to the Post 7-2 12th
Super Add: #6 Interlaken 9-2 2nd

9th: Forward Gal (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Feedback 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #9 Frond 12-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Bye Bye J 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Fashion Faux Pas 4-1 9th

10th: Swale (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Call Paul 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #3 Topper T 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Zenden 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Seismic Jolt 6-1 6th

11th: Holy Bull (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Maximus Mischief 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Mihos 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Garter and Tie 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Federal Case 6-1 7th

12th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Honest Mischief 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Uncle Jamo 3-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Beau Luminaire 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Soldado 4-1 WON ($13.40)

P5 Grid:

8: 1-4-12 (A), - (B), 2-6-7 (C)
9: 4 (A), 9 (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-5-9 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-11 (C)
11: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
12: 1-5 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

9: 4 (A), 9 (B), 3-7 (C)
10: 3-4-5-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-11 (C)
11: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
12: 1 (A), 5 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x2 = $40 ($20 for x .50)
All A's: 1x5x2x1 = 10 x $2 = $20 ($10 for $1; $5 for .50)

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Jackpot P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Omaha Beach is the most probable winner, but One Bad Boy's trip in debut caught attention. Wet track should be no issue, though speed always has advantage in the off going. Polar working like a good horse for McCarthy. Mo Reserve adds exotics value underneath..

Best Value: #8 One Bad Boy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Omaha Beach 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Polar 4-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Mo Reserve 8-1 5th

6th: Bob Lewis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Nolo Contesto is 3rd choice but is preferable to one-paced Gunmetal Gray. Problem is that Mucho Gusto looks like he has a significant pace edge here. For what it's worth, Mucho Macho Man progeny have yet to register a wet track victory (12 runners; 0/15)..

Most Likely: #5 Mucho Gusto 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #6 Nolo Contesto Late SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Gunmetal Gray 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Magnificent McCool 8-1 4th

7th: MCLM/$30k, 3yo, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Bad bunch o' coconuts. Using 1-2-3-5-6-8-9..

Best Value: #5 Toby Time 5-1 7th
Next Best: #9 R B Eye 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Camzul 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Command the Moment 8-1 8th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Unusual MDN grouping with 5 decent multi-start runners facing 5 firsters. As Jay Privman discussed Friday, Time Is Now may be talented but must negotiate the chute from the rail in debut. None of the 5 experienced players look easy to eliminate..

Most Likely: #3 Scalper 6-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Platinum Nights 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Time Is Now 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 My Mandate 3-1 WON ($5.00)

9th: San Pasqual (G2), 4+, 9f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Like Pegasus last week, a nice lineup boils down to McKinzie & Battle of Midway with 2-3 punchers chance/exotics contenders (Pavel, Giant Expectations)..

Most Likely: #7 McKinzie 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #8 Battle of Midway 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #5 Giant Expectations 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Pavel 8-1 4th

10th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Cayate 3-1 2ND
Next Best: #5 Isee It in Hiseyes 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Candyman Garret Late SCR
Super Add: #7 Duke of Fallbrook 15-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Royal Seeker 15-1 -

P6 Grid:

5: 1-5-8
6: 5
7: 2-5-9 (1-3-6-8)
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 7-8
10: 10 (1/SCR-5)

Full Jackpot 6 Play: 3x1x7x4x2x3 =504 x .20 = $100.80 $0.20 Pick-6 (2,5,6/5,6/6/5,6,7/8/5) Paid $296.30
Medium budget (2-5-9 in 7th): 3x1x3x4x2x3 = 216 x .20 = $43.20
Action budget (2-5-9 in 7th; Single 10 in 10th): 3x1x3x4x2x1 = 36 x .20 = $7.20

P5 Grid:

6: 5 (A), 4 (B), 2 (C)
7: 2-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-6-8 (C)
8: 1-2-3 (A), 5 (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 7-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)
10: 5-10 (A), - (B), 1/SCR (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 2-5-9 (A), 1-3-6 (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 1-2-3 (A), 5 (B), 4-8 (C)
9: 7-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)
10: 5-10 (A), 1/SCR (B), 6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick-4 (6/5,6,7/8/5) Paid $117.70
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve