Derby Trail Forums - 10/6: Belmont (6th-11th); Keeneland (6th-10th)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 2nd Turf Sprint Invt., 3+, 6f-IT (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Disco Partner 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #7 Pocket Change 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Pure Sensation 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Blind Ambition 9-2 2nd

8th: 78th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Don't take anything for granted here. On paper, entire field is separated by 2 lengths on their best. Will come down to how hot the pace is with Divine Miss Grey & Come Dancing certain to go early and Farrell likely to get back to comfort zone on/near..

Best Value: #7 Berned 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Wow Cat 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Verve's Tale 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Teresa Z 10-1 4th

9th: 43rd Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Raging Bull obviously the horse to beat, but there is no authentic speed here and an aggressive approach by an ambitious jock could impact the dynamics..

Most Likely: #3 Raging Bull 6-5 5th
Best Value: #2 Prioritize 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Have At It 8-1 WON ($24.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Cullum Road 10-1 7th

10th: 146th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)

Terrific cast of 10 for this historic event and lineup is peppered with Florida (Trophy Chaser), California (Listing) and Jersey (Successful Zip) invaders. Klarman/Brown fave Complexity the one to (potentially) catch and beat and note that Pletcher's Brunetti homebred King for a Day, (3rd against him in their upstate debuts), graduated Thursday with a 93 Beyer. Regarding company lines, Call Paul beat G1 Hopeful upsetter (and KEE Breeders' Futurity contender) Mind Control (Brunetti again!) in their debuts. He then bested Tight Ten in the SAR Special and that one was 2nd only to Cairo Cat in the Iroquois last month. Endorsed wasn't supposed to win his career bow, but did and may be the ideal candidate for an inside/out rally. Trophy Chaser was stunning in his MDN-breaker in So. FL and doesn't need the lead. This is a really fun edition of the Champagne and expect many, many of these go on to do good things..

Best Value: #5 Call Paul 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Endorsed 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Complexity 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #2 Trophy Chaser 10-1 5th

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T

Best Value: #7 Beaux Arts 8-1 12th
Next Best: #9 Something Joyful 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Saratoga Treasure 5-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #4 Truly Courageous 15-1 4th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-5-7 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-2-8 (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 1-2-4-5 (A), - (B), 8-9-10 (C)
11: 7 (A), 1-9 (B), 2-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x4x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x3x1x4x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 2-5-6-7 (A), 1-3-4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 1-2-4-5 (A), 8-9 (B), 3-6-7-10 (C)
11: 7-9 (A), 1 (B), 2-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x1x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Woodford (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Bucchero 5-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #1 Done Deal 15-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Undrafted 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Kid Perfect 15-1 9th

7th: TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Miss Sunset 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Happy Like a Fool 10-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Rich Mommy 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Chalon 4-1 2nd

8th: First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Quidura 2-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Valadorna 20-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Off Limits 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 A Raving Beauty 3-1 WON ($8.40)

9th: Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Mr. Ankeny 12-1 6th
Next Best: #14 Standard Deviation 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Dream Maker 5-1 12th
Super Add: #8 Tobacco Road 12-1 9th

10th: Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #13 Big Score 30-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Analyze It 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Heart to Heart 7-2 9th
Super Add: #14 Bound for Nowhere 15-1 11th

P5 Grid:

6: 1-2 (A), 3-8 (B), 4-6-10 (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), 1-6-9 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), 2-10 (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 5-10-14 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-8 (C)
10: 5-9-13 (A), - (B), 7-11-12-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

7: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 7-9 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)
9: 10-14 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
10: 5-9-13 (A), 7-11-14 (B), 1-6-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

11th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Roan Like the Wind 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Lionite 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #13 Bold Proposition 4-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Raf 12-1 12th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Ready and Rich 5-2 2nd

P4 Grid:

8: 3-8 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)
9: 10-14 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
10: 5-9-13 (A), - (B), 1-7-11-12-14 (C)
11: 4-6-13 (A), 5-11-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve