Derby Trail Forums - 7/20: Saratoga ~ Opening Day (Lake George, Schuylerville)

An idyllic day greets Spa-goers and stakeholders for opening day at historic and welcoming Saratoga Race Course.. Best to all for safe trips and 40 blissful afternoons!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Quirky opener to the season with distance a question for all but Turco Bravo..

Best Value: #7 Hardly a Secret 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Believe in Luck 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Nobody Move 3-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Bad Student 9-2 WON ($13.80)

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Drynachan 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #9 Mike's Girl 9-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Shady Shady Shady 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Bank Examiner 5-1 8th

3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Strong Side 2-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #4 Sicilia Mike 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Fortythreeoeight N 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Monteleone 5-2 6th

4th: MCLM/$75k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Azzedine 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Eagle Pass 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Teryn It Up 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Dominant Strategy 4-1 WON ($11.00)

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Lyrical Lady 4-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #1 Blahnik 2-1 10th
Best Value: #7 Princess Trina 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wild Type 6-1 7th

P5 Grid:

1: 2-5-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
2: 4-9 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-10 (C)
3: 2-4 (A), 6-8 (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 6 (A), - (B), 4-8-9 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):4x2x4x1x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 4x2x2x1x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/4,11,12,13/2/4/6) Paid $1,040.00 (A-A-A-C-A ~ $172 play)

P4 Grid:

2: 4-9 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-10 (C)
3: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 6 (A), 8-9 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
5: 1-3-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x4x1x5 = 40 x .50 = $20

$0.50 Pick-4 (4,11,12,13/2/4/6) Paid $170.25 (A-A-C-A ~ $170 play)

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Miss Mimosa 3-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Palladian Bridge 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Dancing All Night 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Cypiana 7-2 7th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Myhartblongstodady 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Giant Zinger 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Sweet August Lady 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Cumbria 4-1 10th

8th: 100th Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Supremely well-matched set of fillies for the centennial running of this traditional Spa Stakes slate. A good deal of mystery involved with 6 of the 9 having run outside New York ahead of this assignment. Virtually any superfecta combination appears possible..

Best Value: #6 Tapping Pearl 10-1: Debuted, won at the 6f, plus angle for early SAR stakes.. 9th
Next Best: #2 Nonna Madeline 7-2: Pletch/Repole/Viola miss negotiated traffic.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Catherinethegreat 7-2: "Fastest" coming in but first on dry/fast.. WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #9 Lady Apple 8-1: Talented MDN was hard luck Astoria loser.. 5th

9th: 23rd Lake George (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Pace looks pokey..

Most Likely: #5 Goodthingstaketime 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Punked 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Daddy Is a Legend 9-5 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #7 Altea 3-1 2nd

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT

In one of opening day's most interesting confluences, 5yo Dark Energy runs 3.5 hours after 3yo half brother Dominant Strategy..

Most Likely: #8 County Court 5-2 -
Best Value: #2 Dark Energy 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Shamsaan 10-1 -
Exotics Use: #4 Jo's Bold Cat 12-1 4th

P5 Grid:

6: 4-10 (A), - (B), 1-2-5-6 (C)
7: 1-12 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), 3-7-9 (B), 4-5-8-10 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 3-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
10: 2-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-12 (A), - (B), 3-5-10 (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), 3-7-9 (B), 4-5-8-10 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 3-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
10: 2-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve