Derby Trail Forums - 4/14: Keeneland (7th-11th); Oaklawn (8th-11th)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES (EARLY)

7th: 88th Ben Ali (G3), 4+, 9f (P5, P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Wet weather looks to pass through Lexington at various points during Saturday..

Most Likely: #2 Rafting 3-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Hollywood Handsome 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Rated R Superstar 6-1 WON ($14.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Chip Leader 5-2 6th

8th: 22nd Giant's Causeway, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Morticia 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Lady Aurelia 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Jennifer Lynette 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Triple Chelsea 6-1 WON ($18.60)

9th: 37th Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #12 My Boy Jack 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #10 Zanesville 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Honor Up 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Seven Trumpets 8-1 5th

10th: 30th Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Cambodia 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 La Coronel 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Off Limits 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Sistercharlie 7-2 WON ($8.80)

Stakes P4 Grid:

7: 2-3 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-4-7 (C)
8: 3-7-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
9: 12 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6-10 (C)
10: 1-3-7-8-11 (A), 4-5 (B), 2-6-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x7 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x3x1x5 = 30 x .50 = $15

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/4/1,5,12/7) Paid $443.70

11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Alberobello 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #4 Hanalei Moon 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Spark Joy 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Silla Manila 4-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Song of Mine 4-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

7: 2-3-5-6 (A), - (B), 1-4-7 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 12 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6-10 (C)
10: 1-3-7-8-11 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
11: 13 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-5-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 4x2x1x5x1 = 40 x .50 = $20

$0.50 Pick-5 (5/4/1,5,12/7/3,6,13,14,15,16) Paid $900.55 (A-C-A-A-A)

$0.50 Pick-5 (5/4/1,5,12/7/3,6,13,14,15,16) Paid $14.40 (4OF5)

P4 Grid:

8: 3-4-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 12 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6-10 (C)
10: 1-3-7-8-11 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
11: 4-13 (A), 1-5-7 (B), 2-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 4x1x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/1,5,12/7/3,6,13,14,15,16) Paid $131.70

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 21st Northern Spur, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P4, P3)

Title Ready is OK, but not 3-2 OK..

Best Value: #7 Ego Trip 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Ike 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Title Ready 3-2 4th
Super Add: #6 High North 7-2 WON ($11.80)

9th: 45th Count Fleet (G3), 3+, 6f (P3)

Plenty of speed and ANY capable of laurels..

Most Likely: #4 Whitmore 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #6 Smart Spree 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Wilbo 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Ivanfallunovalot 4-1 5th

10th: 72nd Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3)

Horse to beat Accelerate doesn't need lead and has first time by stands to gain position..

Most Likely: #10 Accelerate 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Hawaakom 10-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Untrapped 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Hedge Fund 4-1 10th

11th: 82nd Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Unbeaten Magnum Moon another of the prep season's clear faves and should take logical next step towards Louisville today. For price boost, want to tinker with 'other' Asmussen Dream Baby Dream (15-1) who is steadily progressing and has right off pace look out of Sunland. Solomini is a grinder that need only be 4th or better for gate slot at Churchill..

Most Likely: #6 Magnum Moon 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Dream Baby Dream 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Solomini 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Machismo 20-1 9th

P4 Grid:

8: 1-5-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-8 (C)
9: 4-5-6 (A), 1-2-3 (B), - (C)
10: 4-5-10 (A), 7-11 (B), 2-3 (C)
11: 6 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x5x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 4x3x3x1 = $36 ($18 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/4/11/6) Paid $88.30

Good luck!
Steve