Churchill Downs Fast/good/slow?
 

How do you think the main track will play for Saturday? In past years they seem to tighten it up to help produce those Wow times.

They had some water off and on all week, so I suspect it will be pretty fair for all instead of a paved highway. I did notice a lot of big prices when I looked over Tuesday's charts, but most were MSW races.

In the mornings it has been real slow and deep. But Churchill can change the track in a matter of hours. I venture to say it will be deep tiring.

Euro, Please keep us in tune to the changes if you have time. This the most important variable.

How did you like Lava Man?

I like Lava Man as a horse and I think it is a great story but I am not going to bet him no matter the odds. He has shipped east 3-5 times and didnt perform very well. Plus he has been beating the same horses in Cali. He does look good but I dont think he is going to be near the top 3 horses (whoever they might be).

Thus favoring front runners?

Beat shippers from out East, too - Perfect Drift, Good Reward (okay, any decent dirt horse can beat him), Who's Crying Now. Have just one caveat for you - like his sire and damsire, Lava Man is better at 5 than he was at 4 than he was at 3. Horses continue to mature until they are 7 in most breeds. Many TBs are able to mature at a faster rate, but some follow the species norms more closely.

You can make a case all you want--if he beats me he beats me. But he isnt going to get any of my money.

What a trio right there! What was I thinking tossing him! A horse that refuses to win a race, a horse 1-9 on the dirt, and a horse who has trouble winning at Calder! You forgot about Supervisor by the way! ;)

Very key point -- control and changing the track. I don't know about Saturday but does common sense dictate that -- aside from the weather -- they would want the track nice, fast, souped up, etc.?

Eric

Don't know what type of track will be set up for Saturday. Just have to see the first race and go from there.

It will likely be very fast, last time the BC was at CD, Chilluki set a track record in one of the earlier races....

What I am most concerned about is the turf. The temp rail has been up all week. The hedge hasnt had any work on it for months. I will be interested to see if the hedge is going to be the wrong place to be.

I really have no idea how the dirt will play. Only think I can suggest is to watch the first two races and see what happens. But I think it is going to favors horses in the 4 path on out. I dont think the rail is going to be the place to be. But heck I could be way way off.

You are most likely right on both accounts.