Derby Trail Forums - 12/26: Santa Anita (Opening Day)

SANTA ANITA ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

Hope everyone had a joyful Christmas! Boxing Day delivers one of the great traditional days in racing, Santa Anita Opening Day and with it the last G1's of the year..

1st: MSW, 2yo, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Open start to Arcadia season with 3 dirt/turf movers and EVERYONE stretching from 8f to 9f. Major question is where the pace is going to come from. River Boyne with a clean break? Fengari with Castellano? Of the first time grass runners, Orbit Rain (Orb out of Jaramar Rain by Thunder Gulch) is most eligible to move up on it..

Most Likely: #9 Fengari 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pali High 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Big Buzz 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Orbit Rain 6-1 2nd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Candy Cornell ran big in debut behind key race lynchpin Cool Bobby and looks to have opportunity to stalk and pounce or possibly as controlling speed. Bejarano sticks with 2nd timer Kanthaka who exits that same race for Hollendorfer and merits long look after awkward trip from the the one hole in that debut. Sadler's Desolation Sound ran evenly in October bow, the race that produced Talent Scout, Cool Bobby, Shivermetimbers and more. Baffert's Longden has shown ability in the morning but has disappointed in the afternoon..

Most Likely: #12 Candy Cornell 5-2 10th
Best Value: #3 Kanthaka 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #6 Desolation Sound 5-1 11th
Exotics Use: #10 Longden 10-1 4th

3rd: 80th San Antonio (G2), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Collected tunes up here for Pegasus appointment and should dominate, but the other 5 are really nice horses which bodes well for the West Coast Handicap season..

Most Likely: #6 Collected 3-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Accelerate 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Giant Expectations 15-1 WON ($29.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Hoppertunity 5-1 4th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Chickatini's dam She's Cheeky was a multiple G1 placed sprinter for these connections during the synthetic surface era in California. Ran OK in turf sprint debut and looks to move forward while adding blinkers stretching out down the hill..

Most Likely: #2 Chickatini 4-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Sensible Myth 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Mapit 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Californiagoldrush 12-1 WON ($56.80)
Super/Hi-5: #3 Ladybug 8-1 3rd

5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Spectre Bond stayed in CA for owner Gary Barber after missing as fave at DMR. Wins with return to 100 Beyer debut effort at BEL, but may be vulnerable again here..

Best Value: #3 Red Lightening 8-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #8 Spectre Bond 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Big Gray Rocket 4-1 11th
Super Add: #13 Well Measured 6-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Sir Samson 12-1 7th

P5 Grid:

1: 7-9-10 (A), 1-5-8 (B), - (C)
2: 3-12 (A), - (B), 6-8-9-10 (C)
3: 6 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 2-10 (A), 7-8 (B), 1-3 (C)
5: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), 11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

2: 3-6-12 (A), 8-9-10 (B), - (C)
3: 6 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 2-10 (A), 3-7-8 (B), 1 (C)
5: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), 11-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x3 = 90 x.50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x2x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

6th: 8th Mathis Bros. Mile (G2), 3yo,

Using the top 3 in multis, but Bowies Hero the preference returning to mile voyage that is his best distance..

Most Likely: #5 Bowies Hero 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #4 Harbour Master 8-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Big Score 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 B Squared 5-1 5th

7th: 45th La Brea (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Long-anticipated match-up between Paradise Woods and Unique Bella set and I am hard-pressed to define a scenario that guarantees a win for one or the other. With route success on her resume, Paradise Woods may be that much more versatile returning to the elongated sprint..

Most Likely: #7 Paradise Woods 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Unique Bella 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #4 Mopotism 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Faypien 6-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #2 Marley's Freedom 20-1 4th

8th: 66th Malibu (G1), 3yo, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday on ATR, Pavel reminds me of 2004 Malibu winner Rock Hard Ten into this spot having kept serious Classic-style company all year ahead of last G1 chance as a 3yo. Broke MDN here in July at 6.5f and can adjust to any pace. Unbeaten C Z Rocket will be overbet, but like that he came out early enough for 2 works over the deep surface. Will use the 4 below in fun edition of this stallion resume event..

Most Likely: #6 Pavel 4-1 4th
Next Best: #9 C Z Rocket 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 City of Light 8-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Favorable Outcome 3-1 3rd

9th: OC/N1X, 3+. 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Spanish Hombre 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #6 Temple Keys 6-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Chris and Dave 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Lazzam 3-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #7 Ice Kat 20-1 7th

P5 Grid:

5: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), 11-13 (C)
6: 4-5-8 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
7: 7 (A), 3 (B), 2-4-5 (C)
8: 6-9 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), - (B), 7-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/5/3/1/4,5,13,14) Paid $1,306.85

P4 Grid:

6: 4-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-6 (C)
7: 3-7 (A), 4 (B), 1-5 (C)
8: 6-9 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 9-11 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/3/1/4,5,13,14) Paid $128.55

Good luck!
Steve