Derby Trail Forums - 11/3 (DMR): Breeders' Cup Friday

DEL MAR ~ BREEDERS' CUP FRIDAY

POST-SCRATCHES

Once more into the breach dear friends.. The 'Breeders' Cup invocation'. These 2 days offer unique opportunities with chances to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious and challenging puzzles they've become. No matter how well you 'handicap' the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be taking an '0-fer' well into Saturday and get it all back (and more) in the weekend's waning moments. But no matter how the ledger looks when it's over, appreciate that your ability as a horseplayer won't be defined over the course of 2 days. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here's hoping that everyone nets something that fills their account and makes them proud.

For the 12th year in a row, it's been a pleasure bringing the Cup to everyone listening. I hope the 15 hours here and the time leading up offered each of you something you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Del Mar, Breeders' Cup, ATR sponsors, everyone who contributed so generously to the shows and most importantly, the listeners.. Let's get lucky this weekend!

1st: 7th Damascus, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

With 2 of racing to go on, as discussed with Brad Free, get a sense the main track is playing quick and slightly inside while the turf has been it's very typical self with mid-pack stalkers and late movers sweeping to leads..

Most Likely: #6 Mr. Hinx 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Good Bye Greg 8-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Kobe's Back 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Loose On the Town 7-2 3rd

2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Ritzy A. P. 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #9 Cheekaboomboom 5-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Lazzam 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Soglio 9-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (11-10) Paid $32.30
$1 Trifecta (11-10-6) Paid $178.60

3rd: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 CITY OF LIGHT 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Prime Issue 9-2 7th
Best Value: #12 Mesa Sky 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Dabster 6-1 WON ($11.40)

4th: 5th Golden St. Juvy Fillies-R, 2yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Pulpit Rider 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Show It N Moe It 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Ismelucky 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Spiced Perfection 5-1 2nd

5th: 10th Marathon (G2), 3+, 14f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Hard Aces 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Archanova 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Destin 5-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Ground Rules 8-1 6th

P5 Grid:

1: 2-6 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-7 (C)
2: 9-11 (A), 5-6-10 (B), 2-4 (C)
3: 2 (A), - (B), 1-10-12 (C)
4: 3-4-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

6th: 10th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

It's appeared that Brown & O'Brien would hold the key to this and that's still the case, though Best Performance will save ground and could impact..

Most Likely: #11 Rushing Fall 7-2 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #2 Happily 9-2 14th
Best Value: #1 Best Performance 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Significant Form 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 September 6-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (11-1) Paid $53.70
$1 Trifecta (11-1-10) Paid $371.60
$1 Superfecta (11-1-10-8) Paid $1,878.10

P4 Grid:

3: 2 (A), 1 (B), 10-12 (C)
4: 3-4-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
6: 1-2-11 (A), 8-10 (B), 7-13-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x3x3x3 = 27 x .50 = $13.50

7th: 11th Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

The day's and perhaps the weekend's, most confounding event. You can protect Sharp Azteca & Mor Spirit in multis (they could get into a duel) and try those that have winning races on their page and own wins over the track. Cupid has run best in fast-paced events and proved himself adept at the trip in the Brubaker win here this summer. He's Bejarano's lone BC mount and figures to be overlooked..

Most Likely: #7 Cupid 8-1 10th
Best Value: #1 Iron Fist 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Accelerate 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Battle of Midway 10-1 WON ($30.40)
Super Add: #2 Giant Expectations 12-1 6th

8th: 10th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

While the juvy fillies looks approachable through the major players, the boys' version is a bit of a dog's breakfast. Virtually no superfecta combo will surprise, so take those that appeal to you and hope you've gone deep enough. Snapper Sinclair pressed a hot pace breaking his maiden when moving to lawn and then finished well in a slow paced affair at demanding KY Downs. Flameaway has been meant for turf from the start and has potential to jump forward at a big number. James Garfield, Masar & Sands of Mali are dangerous Euros on my tix and there's nothing wrong with Beholder brother Mendelssohn or Beckford either. Chad Brown's Voting Control is 8-1 as is progressive My Boy Jack. Catholic Boy has made a great impression on observers this week. Should be nuts..

Most Likely: #11 Snapper Sinclair 15-1 12th
Next Best: #7 James Garfield 6-1 10th
Best Value: #10 Flameaway 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Masar 9-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Sands of Mali 30-1 9th

9th: 34th Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DIS-CLS DBL, DD, Hi-5)

This is going to be very interesting. With Champagne Room forced to go and Stellar Wind likely to use the pressure tactics that worked v. Beholder, think the pace is going to heat up and provide Forever Unbridled her ideal scenario. Abel Tasman too dangerous to exclude..

Best Value: #6 Forever Unbridled 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #5 Elate 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Stellar Wind 5-2 8th
Super Add: #7 Paradise Woods 9-2 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #4 Abel Tasman 4-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

6: 2-11 (A), - (B), 1-8-10 (C)
7: 1-7 (A), 2-8-9 (B), 3-6-10 (C)
8: 7-10-11 (A), - (B), 3-4-6-8-13 (C)
9: 2-5-6 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

DIS-CLS DBL:

DIS: 5-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-8 (C)
CLS: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), 9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3 = 12 x $2 = $24
All A's: 2x3 = 6 x $4 = $24

10th: 49th Sen. Ken Maddy (G3), F&M-3+, 5f-T

Best Value: #1 So Sweetiz 6-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Vigor 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Street Surrender 8-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Long Hot Summer 9-2 5th

P4 Grid:

7: 1-7-8 (A), 3-6-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
8: 3-6-7-10-11 (A), - (B), 2-4-8-13 (C)
9: 5-6 (A), 2-4-7 (B), - (C)
10: 1 (A), - (B), 5-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x5x2x1 = 30 x .50 = $15

Good luck!
Steve