Derby Trail Forums - 5/13: Santa Anita (1st-5th)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6/5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky read group of Cal-bred MDN's. Appears that those with experience will provide plenty of pace and can project a scenario where a couple of firsters may be motoring late at targets that have shown an inability to finish. With some opportunity to go narrow late in the P5, suggest spreading here..

Best Value: #5 Miracle March 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Candy's Martini 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Mor Candy 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Insubordination 4-1 2nd

2nd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Omega Moon 2-1: $500k Juddmonte/Baffert firster.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pioneer Lad 5-2: 1st with Baltas; Chased STK-bound MDN's.. WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #6 Gold Shot 10-1: 'Other' Baltas can get a share late.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Captain Chaos 5-2: Miller firster looks route-inclined.. 7th

3rd: OC/ALW, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Nice to see Hess take patient approach with impressive (91 Beyer) first out winner American Pastime. Gave Tapizar colt plenty of time to recover from debut and has fired pair of bullets readying for today, including 58.1 best of 68 on 4/30 in which he spotted rival 9L lead..

Most Likely: #5 American Pastime 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Blue Anchor 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Stormy Roccit 3-1 WON ($13.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Alley Boss 10-1 6th

4th: 65th Desert Code, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Cistron, lone multiple winner in the field ~ and Northern Spur winner at that ~ returns to turf while cutting back; recipe for downhill course success. Rebel War has small turf hints and could get involved at a price. What'sontheagenda another that may take to the lawn being by Dialed In (17% first turf) and out of a mare that's a half sister to Thundering Sky..

Most Likely: #7 Cistron 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Rebel War 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 What'sontheagenda 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 City Storm 5-1 5th

5th: 23rd Laz Barrera (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Santa Anita Derby turnbacks American Anthem & Kimbear merit edge here over the 1-2-5 runners exiting the San Pedro and first-out Miller MCLM winner Sutton Impact..

Most Likely: #1 American Anthem 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Kimbear 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Taxman's Quest 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Bobby Abu Dhabi SCR

P5 Grid:

1: 4-5-6-7 (A), 1-2-9-10 (B), - (C)
2: 3-5 (A), - (B), 1-6-7 (C)
3: 5 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
4: 7 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-4 (C)
5: 1-2 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x2x1x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x1x1x2 = 16 x .50 = $8

P4 Grid:

2: 3-5 (A), 6 (B), 7-8 (C)
3: 5 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-2-3-6 (C)
4: 1-4-5-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
5: 1-2 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x1x5x2 = 20 x .50 = $10

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/7/4/1,3) Paid $112.10

Good luck!
Steve