Derby Trail Forums - Churchill Downs Saturday May 6th

Race 5:
#1 Forge: Nothing wrong with NA debut and ran 3rd on soft going at Royal Ascot last year behind a good runner in Ribchester.
#6 Sky Flight: Rank on barn debut and last time set a blistering pace against much better. I think the shades going on will allow him to relax and his better form came as a stalker. Has a win on a yielding surface.
#11 Hockey School: Best races have come on the front end and Castellano may be able to cross and lead.
#3 Ghurair: Been a long time since he's won but the talent is still there.

Race 6:
#7 Carina Mia: Big ask to win this first up but Mott can get her ready. Even accounting for the ignored run in the BC after a slow start she did disappoint in the summer and fall, but she has the speed for this and knows the course.
#2 Paulassilverlining: Think Chad can take her up a notch and she wasn't beaten by much in the BC after shipping across the country.
#3 Mines and Magic: Value play loves this course. If you look only at her one-turn dirt races she doesn't have much to hide from. Not stressing too much about a 6th at quirky Tampa off a near 5 month layoff, and last time only had one work. Ran well enough for her first graded dirt sprint try.
#5 Finest City: BC Champ has to prove it outside of So. Cal.

Race 7:
#6 Roca Rojo: Beaten only a nose in the Matriarch and gets 5lbs this time. Has romped twice on soft and has won all three starts on wet turf. Sib is contending with the best in Hong Kong and she has every right to progress towards that caliber.
#7 Harmonize: Another with a 5lbs break and should improve second up.
#1 Linda
#4 Believe in Bertie

Race 8:
#9 Excitations: Dueled with and was beaten a head by Girvin on debut. Two strong sprint wins since. Solid work over the track and 10-1 ML for a runner who has been favoured in all four starts. Should get a great stalking trip.
#12 Bobby On Fleek: The one-turn mile looks to suit and Chad is 6 for 9 (8 ITM) with 3yos 2nd off a layoff after winning first off the shelf in dirt races up to a mile.
#5 No Dozing: Had one of the worst trips I can remember last out. Won both sprint tries so these conditions should be fine.
#11 Sonic Mule: His Tampa Derby run was no worse than his other two-turn tries. His GP races more than fit here, especially given they were run in non-speed favouring conditions.
#4 will try to take them all the way and gets extra points if it's wet, but just wonder if he's another precocious Tiz Wonderful who hasn't improved as a 3yo.

Race 9:
#9 Made You Look: Can ignore the dirt try and Pletcher didn't do so well with last year's theory of giving an extended rest before the BC. Other than that he's done nothing wrong and he should have won two back with a clean trip. Form would look even better if that was a W.
#4 Oscar Performance: Tough trip on the return, but it means you'll get much better odds than you would have otherwise.
#3 Parlor: Not really sure what the Lonhro foal was doing competing with that hot pace in the Spiral when he's a closer. Working well for this and can juice the exotics.
#6 Arklow: Bred for the turf so no surprise he ran a career best when switching to the green. A further step forward makes him really competitive here.

Race 10:
#2 Masochistic: A 14 horse field in a G2 sprint and there's only one confirmed front runner??? 7lbs swing from last makes him tough to beat.
#13 Tom's Ready: Extended worktab for the return. Hopeless from last in the speed dominated King's Bishop, wasn't disgraced in the BC, and won his two other races since cutting back to one-turn.
#4 Apprehender: These runners from OP with wicked final fractions last out always seem to do well in this event, if my memory serves me right. Won his lone start over the course and distance.
#8 El Kabeir: Has had his problems but has always seemed a one-turn type. Good return run off the long layoff and eligible to improve.

Race 11:
#4 Conquest Panthera: Handled the step up to G1 last out and should appreciate the extra furlong.
#2 Divisidero: Won on this weekend the last two years, including this event last year.
#12 Ballagh Rocks: Another that held his own stepping up to G1 and can continue to improve but is hurt by the wide post.
#11 Can'thelpbelieving

Race 12:
#1 Lookin At Lee: Will pass tired runners but won't pass enough. VERDICT: Toss.
#2 Thunder Snow: Will write a bit more about him to explain my stance on foreign runners. At first, I thought he's one of if not the best foreign chances ever. I don't buy into the theory that a foreigner can't win this race, because the ones in the past have had many reasons to be tossed. He's not a Johannesburg who only had one 7f prep, he's not Castle Gandolfo who had one 8f prep and never tried dirt before, he's not Dr. Devious who hadn't run past a straight mile or on dirt before (although he won the Epsom Derby after), he's not Arazi who had one 8f prep and had never run past 8.5f before, he's not Eltish who had only one prep that was nowhere close to his 2yo form, he's not Citadeed who had only one 7f prep and had never run past 7.25f or on dirt before, he's not Ski Captain who had never run on dirt before and only had one race (in Feb) as a 3yo, etc. I didn't think Mubtaahij was that good and Lani I liked because I thought he had potential, the race would suit, and last year's crop was weak. This is a G1 winner held in high regard who has now won two route preps on the dirt. With so many questions about the top candidates this year, he definitely has to be considered. With that in mind, even though he won at 9.5f he was staggering a bit and changing leads late. Yes, he beat Epicharis, a good horse that I have seen live and will be a strong contender at Belmont, but I really wonder about him at 10f. His grandsire is a champion sprinter and sire, who has 130 stakes winners as progeny and I don't think any of them were anything more than milers (none won a G2 or G1 past 8f). His sire Helmet was a sprinter/miler who flopped past 8f and whose other progeny (recently at stud) seem to be cut from the same cloth. His damsire was a miler who flopped as a sire but has had a resurgence as a damsire (including G1 staying events in Europe), so there is some influence on the bottom. If he had a bit more stamina from the sire line, had come from the UK sooner, and had drawn better he would be my top pick, but I wouldn't toss him just because he's a shipper. VERDICT: Potential win candidate.
#3 Fast and Accurate: Resurgence with the blinkers and even though he's the reported pacesetter he ironically seems way too slow. VERDICT: Toss.
#4 Untrapped: Had every chance to get past in the Rebel and didn't. Early move in the blinkers last out suggests that maybe he should be running in the Pat Day Mile. However, a repeat of his Risen Star could give him a slim chance to sneak into the exotics. VERDICT: Use in wider Tri tickets.
#5 Always Dreaming: The talent is there but he's had things his own way in the three wins. Been aggressive in the mornings and with speed inside and outside of him I think he'll be fired up early. Don't think he's got enough stamina influence to last 10f either. He can hit the board, but I'll pass on the win line. VERDICT: Exotics use.
#6 State of Honor: Hasn't shown anything to suggest the added distance will help. Has lost lengths in the stretch in every two turn race and can envision the same here. VERDICT: Toss.
#7 Girvin: Was one of my original picks and although he may have worked well over the strip, to have bar shoe issues leading up to the Derby is unsettling. VERDICT: Use in saver tickets as a backup.
#8 Hence: I don't buy the hype with this one. Got the perfect setup at Sunland and there appears to be no excuse for his run at Oaklawn. His win in the mud was good but his 2yo form is nothing to write home about. Further, I use a 96 BRIS LP rating as a benchmark for the Derby. All winners going back to 1990 and all runners filling the rest of the super going back to 2000 (this is as far back as I have access to) have had at least one career race with a 96 BRIS LP rating. Hence's best is 93. VERDICT: Toss.
#9 Irap: In hindsight, getting 31-1 on a horse who ran second to both Mastery and Conquest Mo Money might have been overlay. However, he was beaten by Hence and Royal Mo, although both those races came in blinkers. Maybe he's finally put it all together, but they've been changing so many things: jockey, blinkers, track, etc. that I don't know if he can be trusted. VERDICT: Use in wider Tri tickets.
#10 Gunnevera: After beelining for the rail at the start I don't know what more could have been expected from his Florida Derby run as he absolutely couldn't have run faster final fractions. Besides that, his three previous races make him a strong candidate here and I don't think he will be as far back as projected to be. He has the circling move than can effectively put him in contention on the far turn and the stamina to sustain that run. He can be the one to break the Storm Cat sire line duck. VERDICT: Win candidate.
#11 Battle of Midway: Didn't need to be dueling through that pace in the SA Derby but I'm not convinced about him going 10f. It also takes a special runner to hit the board without having raced as a 2yo. That doesn't appear to be him. VERDICT: Toss.
#12 Sonneteer: Maiden has clunked up behind some suspect form. In a race where the contenders have more questions than answers it would seem fitting for him to run well. With that in mind he's reluctantly my last super add. VERDICT: 4th at best.
#13 J Boys Echo: Think he's coming in under the radar. Caught a terrible trip in the Delta Jackpot and didn't have much of a chance behind the slow pace in the Withers. His Gotham win was as good as any in here before falling victim to another tough trip in the Blue Grass. You could argue that he hasn't beaten anyone, and I've used that card for others in here, but on paper there's just much more to like about him than those said others. He also fits a lot of metrics and the value looks to be there. VERDICT: The top pick.
#14 Classic Empire: The champ returned with a win, but besides the runner-up the field was quite dubious and after a rough go early on he needed every inch of the stretch to get there. With the troubles he's had it's a tough ask to now return in 3 weeks and run the race of his life. He's the champ so it's possible, but he won't be my main win play. VERDICT: Win candidate.
#15 McCraken: I don't think he regressed in the Blue Grass. The horses he's beaten (Guest Suite, Wild Shot, Warrior's Club, Tapwrit, State of Honor) are nothing special and considering that he ran to his standard last out. Wilkes has it in him to improve him, and he'll need to, but at an underlay ML of 5-1 he's not for me. Also wonder about him at 10f (seems like it's the same question for all 20 runners) but has three wins over the course and his running style should suit. VERDICT: Exacta candidate.
#16 Tapwrit: Missed a work before the Blue Grass so that could give him a bit of an excuse. Prior to that was quite consistent and had run some good numbers. Pletcher seems to hit the board with forgotten runners and I think he has a shot to rebound. VERDICT: Exacta candidate.
#17 Irish War Cry: Don't know what to do with this one. After the Holy Bull I was thinking he would be my Derby horse. Rebound well but never has a horse run so bad, returned with a dominant win, and continued to win the Derby. Granted they ran quick fractions, but the final 3f were also slow. VERDICT: Exacta candidate.
#18 Gormley: Winner of what seems like the worst SA Derby in recent memory. Doesn't look like he wants any part of 10f, and another with poor LP ratings. VERDICT: Toss.
#19 Practical Joke: Hasn't overly flattered in the stretch in his two-turn races and also seems distance challenged on pedigree, but he always gives it his all and the class is clearly there. VERDICT: Exacta candidate.
#20 Patch: One-eyed runner makes a good story but see above for thoughts on horses than didn't run at 2yo. VERDICT: Toss.

Overall Picks:
#13 J Boys Echo
#10 Gunnevera
#14 Classic Empire
#2 Thunder Snow

Race 13:
#5 One of a Kind
#1 Calumet Entry
#2 Visionary Tale
#8 Rockin Rudy

Race 14:
#11 Wicked Macho
#5 Bourbon Country
#4 Souper Wish
#14 Likeitlikethat

$0.60 Early Pick Four:
Race 5: 1, 3, 6, 11
Race 6: 2, 3, 5, 7
Race 7: 6, 7
Race 8: 5, 9, 11, 12
$76.80

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 8: 5, 9, 11, 12
Race 9: 3, 4, 9
Race 10: 2
Race 11: 2, 4, 11, 12
Race 12: 2, 10, 13, 14
$115.20

$0.60 Stakes Pick Four
Race 9: 3, 4, 6, 9, 10
Race 10: 2, 13
Race 11: 2, 4, 11, 12
Race 12: 2, 10, 13, 14
$96.00

$0.60 Late Pick Five
Race 10: 2
Race 11: 2, 4
Race 12: 2, 10, 13, 14
Race 13: 1, 2, 5
Race 14: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 14
$100.80 (if beaten in the first leg, repeat as P4 starting in the 11th)

Good luck!