Derby Trail Forums - 5/5: Churchill Downs (143rd Kentucky Oaks Day)

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 143rd KENTUCKY OAKS DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

GOOD TURF & SLOPPY MAIN.. CHECK SCR/CHG'S OFTEN.. 4TH & 13TH NOW OFF..

CD SCR/CHG'S

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST: Periods of showers, mainly before 11 a.m.. High near 54. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Street Biz 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Naylor 6-1 WON ($9.00)
Next Best: #3 Song of Spring 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Loom 7-2 6th

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Northwest Bourbon 6-1 WON ($29.40)
Next Best: #1 Dancing All Night 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Belletta 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Tiger Eyes 3-1 5th

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Stonetacular 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #5 Elate 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Crimson Frost 15-1 7thg
Super Add: #4 Drinks On Broadway 20-1 3rd

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Flying Tipat SCR
Next Best: #8 Sassy Little Lila SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Maquette 7-2 8th
Super Add: #4 Princess Princess 5-1 4th

OFF THE TURF:

5th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

SCR #8 Finest City who runs in Humana Saturday..

Most Likely: #4 Paid Up Subscriber 2-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Eskenformoney 8-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Big World 20-1 WON ($16.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Streamline 8-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

2: 1-5-6 (A), 3-4-7 (B), 2-8-9 (C)
3: 2-5 (A), - (B), 4-7-8 (C)
4: 2/SCR-8/SCR (A), 4-7 (B), 6-9 (C)
5: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

6th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 American Freedom 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Honorable Duty 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Breaking Lucky 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 December Seven 20-1 6th

7th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Pure Sensation 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Why Too 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Green Mask 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Holding Gold 4-1 6th

P5 Grid:

3: 2-5 (A), - (B), 4-7-8 (C)
4: 2/SCR-8/SCR (A), 4-7 (B), 6-9 (C)
5: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
6: 2-4-9 (A), 1-5-8 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
7: 8 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x6x1 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3x1 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

4: 2/SCR-8/SCR (A), 4-7 (B), 6-9 (C)
5: 1-4 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
6: 4-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-5-8 (C)
7: 3-4-8-12 (A), 7-9-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

8th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Benner Island 10-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #10 Ghalia 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #7 Golden Mischief 12-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Florida Fancy 9-2 10th

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 River Echo 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Goats Town 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Tom's d'Etat 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Langdarma 8-1 2nd

10th: Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

NOTE #1a La Coronel now RUNS here with Florent Geroux..

Most Likely: 1e Casse entry 8-5 WON/2nd ($4.00)
Best Value: #10 Purely a Dream 20-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Proctor's Ledge 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Stallion Heiress 6-1 10th

11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo, 9f (Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Though main track condition will be a giant question mark, talent, and potentially devastating talent, of Paradise Woods looms large over this Oaks and as an ideal bulwark of your Oaks-Derby Double and Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3. As Mandella said after the Santa Anita Oaks, he didn't think he'd ever nominated a filly to the Triple Crown during his Hall of Fame career. Will take a huge effort from one of the other solid players from the division to beat her and Farrell looks to be the one that has the best chance on heels of patient Fair Grounds Oaks win and weeks of strong work into the assignment. Ever So Clever and Miss Sky Warrior are logical fillies to respect and I'll try to get Ashland upsetter Sailor's Valentine into the tri/super with a late run at boxcars..

Most Likely: #4 Paradise Woods 5-2 11th
Next Best: #7 Farrell 5-1 14th
Best Value: #1 Ever So Clever 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Miss Sky Warrior 9-2 7th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Sailor's Valentine 30-1 6th

P5 Grid:

7: 4-8 (A), 3-12 (B), 5-7-9-11 (C)
8: 1-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-9 (C)
9: 4-7-12 (A), 1-3-10 (B), 9-11-13 (C)
10: 1-7-10 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
11: 4 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x6x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 1-7-10 (A), - (B), 2-9 (C)
9: 4-7-12 (A), 1-3-10 (B), 9-11-13 (C)
10: 1-6-7-10 (A), - (B), 4-9-12 (C)
11: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x4x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid:

KO: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-8-10-13 (C)
WR: 1-2-3-4-6-12 (A), - (B), 8-9 (C)
KD: 5-15-17-19 (A), - (B), 2-6-11-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 1x6x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Oaks-Derby Double Grid:

KO: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-8-10-13 (C)
KD: 5-15-17-19 (A), 2-6-11-14 (B), 1-8-16-18 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x8 = $16
All A's: 1x4 x $5 = $20

12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Friend of Liberty 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #7 American Cleopatra 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Noelle's Mischief 5-1 SCR
Super Add: #5 Minnie Blip 5-1 4th

13th: MSW, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #10 Big Exchange 6-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Saburo 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 McCormick 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Rollin Smoke 8-1 4th

P5 Grid:

9: 4-7-12 (A), 1-3-10 (B), 9-11-13 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-9-12 (C)
11: 4 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
12: 4-7 (A), - (B), 5-8-10 (C)
13: 2-5-10 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x1x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

10: 1-6-7-10 (A), - (B), 4-9-12 (C)
11: 4 (A), 7 (B), 1-10 (C)
12: 4-7 (A), 5-8-10 (B), 8 (C)
13: 2-5-10 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 4x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve