bc capping notes...
 

heard on atrab the other day that ..the last 4 times the bc was held at churchill downs the beyers were within 3 ticks of each other in each class of race..so if im correct..the winners beyer for lets say..the sprint.,,
1st sime it was held at church..112
2nd time it was held at church 114
3rd time it was held at church 113
4th time ect 112

for each class..f and m turf ...ect
1st time 99
2nd time 98
3rd time 100
4th time 98,,,,,these are just an example..im hoping steve can go into further detail...if true this really is a nice nugget..when getting the contenders .....so if you know what it takes to win it..that helps alot..

Nice one,Hooves! will follow.....

Let me clarify this a tad.. First, this applies strictly to the BC races at CD on the MAIN... The turf races don't apply since pace and trip make the figures vary more widely. Here's the CD numbers with a par (XXX) derived by dropping the highest and lowest of the figs, followed by the Beyer par (XXX) with the Churchill figs taken out, followed by the overall Beyer par (XXX)

CLASSIC: 116, 116, 115, 120, 122 (117/117/118)

JUVENILE: 99, 97, 100, 101, 102 (100/99/99)

SPRINT: 114, 112, 114, 113, 115 (114/114/114)

JUVY GALS: 92, 101, 92, 85, 91 (92/96.5/95)

DISTAFF: 108, 105, 105, 107, 115 (107/109/109)

Interesting note obviously is that the two girls' races are significantly 'slower' than the SPR, CLS and JUV... Based on the pars, you can draw the conclusion about whom is capable of running those figures. Par contenders based on the "winning" figure with their career best coming in:

(NOTE: Euro figs based on Timeform -14)

CLASSIC (117): Bernardini (117); David Junior (115*Turf); Geo. Washington (118*Turf); Lava Man (116*); Invasor (113); Sun King (113)

JUVENILE (100): C P West (92); Circular Quay (95); King of the Roxy (94); Principle Secret (96); Scat Daddy (95); Stormello (96);

SPRINT (114): Bordonero (115); Commentator (121); Dubai Escapade (115); Friendly Island (112); Henny Hughes (113); Kelly's Landing (112-at CD); Malibu Mint (115); Pomeroy (114); Thor's Echo (116); Too Much Bling (113); War Front (114)

JUV GALS (92): Cash Included (93); Dreaming of Anna (95)

DISTAFF (107): Balletto (104); Fleet Indian (112); Happy Ticket (104); Healthy Addiction (104); Hollywood Story (105); Pine Island (102); Pool Land (105); Round Pond (102); Spun Sugar (103)

May have merit.. May be entirely useless.. But it sure seems in historical events that have enough statistically significant info, that the Beyer par is a pretty strong model to identify the most likely contenders. May seem obvious, but as an example, I hadn't realized that Hollywood Story, who's a favorite of mine, has produced a pair of 105's, career bests, in her last 4 races...

Hope it's of use to someone..

Thanks (as always) for the insight.
good luck today.

[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead]..im hoping steve can go into further detail...QUOTE]
thank you..i was way off on what i thought...

I appreciate the work that went into this, but is this saying anything more than the horses with the best Beyers have the best chance to win? I probably value Beyers more than most here, but I just don't get what's new in this info. Is this suggesting that Beyers may be a better predictor of the BC dirt races than dirt races in general?

--Dunbar

Dun -

Beyer pars and studies like this one basically just give you a cutoff point to determine contenders and non-contenders. That's all.

Generally, yes, the "highest" Beyer runners have the "best" chance.. But it involves the performance pattern as much as it does the career high. Perfect Drift has a career high Beyer that "fits" (117), but it was run in 2003.

Sun King (last 4: 105, 113, 96, 112) offers a much more appealing pattern that would indicate formful opportunity to run a race that would put him in the exotics picture (108-114?)...

The decision regarding which runners, who are in the vicinity of the typical winning fig, are the ones you see as "running their race", is an individual call based on your handicapping...

Gotta love that spring with 11 horses showing back Beyers within a length of each other's top. No thanks, chalk eaters at the next table.:p

Chalk?

You mean Thor's Echo at a likely 60-1? Or Kelly's Landing at possibly 30-1? Or the chalky War Front at maybe 20-1? Friendly Island at 40-1-ish?

Which chalky sprint contender within a length of Henny Hughes or Bordonaro do you mean?

60/1? There's no way Thor's Echo is even half that.. Kelly's Landing will be a lot closer to 60/1 than Thor's Echo. My guess is 20/1 on Thor's Echo.

That's what I do mean as everyone here seems to love Henny. To clarify, I'll look for something behind the favorites since they are all so closely matched. Personally, I'm interested in Siren Lure and Malibu Mint given an all out war on the front. War Front and Thor's Echo look more like exotic fillers.