3/18: Oaklawn (7th-11th)
 

OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 31st Azeri (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3)

When singling Terra Promessa to start P5, hard not to think about Masochistic failing at SA last week. Yes she's overwherlmingly likely, but Power of Snunner, Eskenformoney, Streamline all within a couple lengths if she regresses off the career best Bayakoa effort..

Most Likely: #2 Terra Promessa 3-5 5th
Best Value: #7 Streamline 10-1 WON ($26.20)
Next Best: #6 Eskenformoney 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Power of Snunner 8-1 4th


8th: 69th Essex H., 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3)

Another reason Terra Promessa has to be a heavy lean is the complexity of this event with top contenders less than a 2 lengths apart and even the outsiders well within range.

Most Likely: #3 Dazzling Gem 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Mor Spirit 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Domain's Rap 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Shotgun Kowboy 5-1 6th


9th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3)

Very tricky read and don't think the faves are any better than several down the pecking order..

Most Likely: #10 Boalt Hall 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Manhattan Mischief 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Operation Stevie 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Will Munnings SCR


10th: 57th Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

And then there's this fascinating cast which offers a rare mid-March look at runners from 4 of the 5 major winter venues.. As discussed with James Scully, Nick Tammaro, Ed DeRosa, Jay Privman & Mary Rampellini Friday, pace scenario (fast, hot, meltdown?) is the decision you need to make with referendum on Malagacy stretching out imperative. He, American Anthem, Royal Mo, Uncontested all look to be grappling for the lead into the turn. Any seem capable if allowed to relax, but sure feels like there will be a spirited battle with second flight players Petrov & Untrapped looking to engage when appropriate. Silver Dust and Lookin At Lee (even maiden Sonneteer) are your late runners that can get significant shares. Terrific Arky Derby prep, well worth the $900k that Mr. Cella is offering..

Most Likely: #4 Petrov 9-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Untrapped 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Malagacy 4-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Silver Dust 15-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Lookin At Lee 15-1 6th


11th: OC/N1X, 4+, 8.5f

A scrambler to close out a tough set of sequences..

Best Value: #12 Leofric 8-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #3 Dan the Go to Man 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Langdarma 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Warden of the West 12-1 7th


P5 Grid:

7: 2 (A), - (B), 5-6-7 (C)
8: 2-3-7 (A), 1-8 (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-7-8-9 (C)
10: 4-5-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 8-11 (C)
11: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), 2-5-6-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x3x2x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-7 (A), 1-8 (B), 4-5 (C)
9: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-7-8-9 (C)
10: 4-5-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 8-11 (C)
11: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), 2-5-6-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,6/9/6/12) Paid $442.90 (A-C-A-A)


Good luck!
Steve

Ra
 

Races #8 fear the cowboy the #6 horse scratched

Nice job with the Pick 4.

Thanks Jim but like last week, final structure decisions weren't really good enough. That monstrous P5 yesterday was within reach shifting confidence to Mor Spirit and away from Terra Promessa. And to identify Streamline yesterday and Denman's Call at SA and not truly capitalize on their value hurts the long term bottom line. Even saw that Sonneteer was a not-impossible exotics play and failed to respond building the tri. Got a nice pop in the nightcap which helped. Decent opinions all afternoon there and modest results.. Hope everyone did OK..