Derby Trail Forums - 2/25: Fair Grounds (8th-12th)

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 32nd Mineshaft H. (G3), 4+, 8.5f (Black Gold P5, P4, P3, DD)

Treacherous start to a harrowing sequence with entire field separated by 3 lengths on their best. Rise Up (10-1) will fire from the rail and can wire if left unattended, so you need Dalmore SCR'D, (perhaps December Seven?), to light out after him if you want to provoke alternate scenarios. As mentioned on ATR yesterday, you literally need them all to assure safe passage into Leg B of the P4..

Most Likely: #6 Dazzling Gem 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Rise Up 10-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Honorable Duty 8-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #3 December Seven 8-1 5th

9th: 37th Rachel Alexandra (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Shane's Girlfriend need only come close to her Delta effort to swamp these and Valadorna figures to get a great trip behind the speed. Asmussen appeared very confident on ATR of a snapback effort from Untapped, suggesting they understood what was amiss in her dismal Silverbulletday showing..

Best Value: #3 Shane's Girlfriend 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Valadorna 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Untapped 9-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Farrell 5-2 WON ($9.60)

10th: 31st Fair Grounds H. (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Granny's Kitten 3-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Oscar Nominated 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Enterprising 6-1 WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #1 Bullards Alley 12-1 4th

11th: 45th Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Girvin should float up from 6-1 and looks like the right price booster off clever turf stake run used by Sharp to add fitness and 2 turn experience. His ability to close on that long FG turf stretch bodes well for him here. Like Shane's Girlfriend, Mo Town has a race at 2 that will overwhelm this group, unless someone leaps forward. All reports from Payson Park have the Tony Dutrow charge working sharply and colt has tractable style that can adjust to any pace that unfolds. Asmussen's Local Hero shows up out of nowhere as the 'now' horse, while his Untrapped caught a muddy LeComte strip that he appeared to slog through for a good 2nd..

Best Value: #1 Girvin 6-1 WON ($18.20)
Next Best: #9 Mo Town 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Local Hero 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Untrapped 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $59.30
$1 Trifecta (1-2-3) Paid $279.40

P4 Grid:

8: 1-3-6-7 (A), 2-5-8 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 5-9 (A), 6 (B), 1 (C)
11: 1-3-9 (A), - (B), 2-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x2x3x3 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A's: 4x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24

12th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Control Tower 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Heat Flash 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Unbridled Giant 8-1 WON ($10.00)
Super Add: #4 King Ptolemy 6-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Ft Davis 6-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

9: 3-5 (A), 1-2 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
10: 5-9 (A), 6 (B), 1 (C)
11: 1-3-9 (A), - (B), 2-6-10 (C)
12: 3-13 (A), 2-4 (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/6/1/2) Paid $412.30

Good luck!
Steve