Derby Trail Forums - 2/20: Aqueduct ($42k C/O); Oaklawn (6th-10th)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MSW, 4+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD)

$42k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Sister Steff 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #6 Hey Lady 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Sugar Reef 2-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Pirouette 6-1 4th

5th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Kohlhase 2-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #7 Toohottoevenspeak 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 American Road 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Dark as Midnight 10-1 4th

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sea Pebble 5-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Megan's Muse 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 California Wildcat 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Argyle Gal 7-2 2nd

7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Midnight Champagne 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Little Bear Cat 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #1 Slam Chowder 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Lightening Lilly 6-1 5th

8th: 33rd Jimmy Winkfield, 3yo, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Bavaro 9-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Even Thunder 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Caldonian 12-1 WON ($23.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Sal the Turtle 2-1 3rd

9th: MCLM/$30k, 3yo, 1m-70y

Most Likely: #1a Samurai Warrior 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Mister Hayes 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Degrom 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Over Promised 4-1 -

P6 Grid:

4: 3 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
5: 6 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)
6: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 3-4 (B), 1 (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), 4-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x1x4x3x4x1 = 48 x $2 = $96
All A's: 1x1x2x3x2x1 = 12 x $2 = $24

P4 Grid:

6: 1-2 (A), 5-6 (B), 3-7 (C)
7: 1-2-3-4 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 3-4 (B), 1 (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), 4-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x4x1 = $64 ($32 for .50)
All A's: 2x4x2x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

Forecast has brightened somewhat for Hot Springs, but seems likely there will be precipitation and a wet track to deal with today..

6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Heartwood 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Appalachian Gem 3-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Hay Listen Up 7-2 8th
Super Add: #5 Hard Scramble 9-2 4th

7th: 58th Razorback (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Gun Runner 4-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #5 Hawaakom 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Smack Smack 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Goats Town 20-1 4th

8th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Hard not to root for Brerry with owner Alex Lieblong mourning the Sunday death of his mother..

Most Likely: #8 Shotgun Kowboy 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #4 Brerry 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Rocket Time 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Carve 12-1 2nd

9th: 52nd Southwest (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Potential for wet track complicates things here, but no matter what, it feels like there's simply too much pace involved to concede race to leaders. Randy Morse and Corey Lanerie look very appealing with first time 3yo Silver Dust (10-1) for inside/out trip behind the speeds. A $510k Tapit, Silver Dust closed at a mile in 2yo debut against solid group before breaking MDN over subsequent winners like Dilettante, Senior Investment, Hollywood Handsome, etc. Bred for wet if it comes into play and working right along after brief break..

Best Value: #2 SILVER DUST 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Petrov 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Lookin At Lee 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Uncontested 5-2 6th

10th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f

Most Likely: #3 Vandelay 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Altito 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Blueridge Traveler 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Tapsolute 5-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

6: 1-2 (A), 5-7-8 (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5-8 (C)
8: 2-4-8 (A), 3-5 (B), 1 (C)
9: 2-8 (A), - (B), 3-4-11 (C)
10: 2-3-9 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x5x2x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (1/1,6,7/7,8/11/9) Paid $399.05 (A-A-A-C-A)

P4 Grid:

7: 1 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-5-8 (C)
8: 2-4-8 (A), 1-3-5 (B), - (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 3-4-11 (B), 5-7-9 (C)
10: 2-3-9 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 1x3x2x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,6,7/7,8/11/9) Paid $91.95

Good luck!
Steve