Derby Trail Forums - 1/14: Aqueduct ($16k C/O); Gulfstream (8th-12th)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD)

This is a very nice group and it may require using half of them for safe P6 passage..

Most Likely: #1 Apartfromthecrowd 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #7 Opportunity Cost 7-2 9th
Best Value: #8 Robbins 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Into the Breach 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Morocco 10-1 4th

5th: Jazil, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro on Weekemnd Preview, playing against Royal Posse (6/0-3-0 on Inner Track) seems prudent. Sunny Ridge won Withers here last year and can set up shop behind the speeds..

Most Likely: #2 Sunny Ridge 6-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #3 Royal Posse 7-5 4th
Best Value: #5 Grasshoppin 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Doyouknowsomething 7-2 3rd

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Outstanding group including late-to-emerge-at-3 types Diversify, Know Your Customer SCR'D and Exulting.. Older prices Pretentious and Nigel's Destiny have plenty to like from off the pace..

Best Value: #10 Exulting 6-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Diversify 6-5 WON ($2.70)
Exotics Use: #4 Pretentious 5-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Nigel's Destiny 10-1 4th

7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Chomsky 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #1 Toohottoevenspeak 5-2 4th
Best Value: #12 Devilish Grin 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Cat's Landing 6-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (DD)

Another nice ALW set, this one going short. Ultra-consistent Sciacca gelding Candid Desire, now 5, has banked $200k+ and has nibbled at open company last pair. Two of his 3 career tallies have come on this strip and he should get an ideal trip stalking the honest pace. Invading Conquest dispersal refugee 'Expresso' gets first try on main track for which he was bred..

Most Likely: #3 Candid Desire 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #4 Conquest Expresso 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Divine Interventio 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Roll Tide Roll 7-2 6th

9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 3yo-F, 6f

#13 Air Force Nurse (5-2) DOES draw in..

Best Value: #10 Shining With Luck 12-1 12th
Next Best: #13 Air Force Nurse 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Lynnie B 5-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Feather in My Cap 4-1 10th

P6 Grid:

4: 1-7 (A), - (B), 2-8-10 (C)
5: 2 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
6: 9-10 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 1-6 (A), - (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 2-9 (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 10-13 (A), 5 (B), 1-2-7-9 (C)

All A's: 2x1x2x2x2x2 = 32 x $2 = $64
Simple (A+B): 2x1x2x2x4x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick-6 (1/2/6,8,9/6/3/13) Paid $2,226.00

$2 Pick-6 (1/2/6,8,9/6/3/13) Paid $37.80 (5OF6) x 5 = $189.00 (All A's); x 8 = $302.40 (A+B)

P4 Grid:

6: 3-4-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-6 (A), - (B), 7-12 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 2-9 (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 10-13 (A), 5 (B), 1-2-5-7-12 (C)

All A's: 4x2x2x2 = $32 ($16 for .50)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

$1 Pick-4 (6,8,9/6/3/13) Paid $114.25 ($57.12 for .50)

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 9f-T/48' (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Contentious start to P5..

Best Value: #9 Nessy 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Zennor 4-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #8 St.. Louie 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Flying Bullet 8-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Flash Trading 15-1 11th

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5f-T/115' (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Mysterious-looking set of 3yo lawn-dashing fillies with 4 firsters and 4 others making 2nd/3rd starts. Few distinguishing characteristics to latch on to, but Gary Barber paid $290k for Objective Complete, a NY-bred Miss Impazible filly at the FL Sale last March who is working sharply for capable first out barn..

Most Likely: #2 Objective Complete 4-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Raging Town 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Morticia 15-1 WON ($25.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Spellker 5-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #4 Oh So Terrible 7-2 3rd

10th: Ft. Lauderdale (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T/48' (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Conventional wisdom says Divisidero will need one over track where he has arrived late in 3 previous stake tries, but natural progression from time last seen may enable him to overwhelm this good group. Plenty of pace to run at if he starts tardily. After that, feel free to spread far and wide building tickets..

Most Likely: #7 Divisidero 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Heart to Heart 3-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Flatlined 15-1 WON ($32.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Almanaar 8-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #2 Night Prowler 8-1 6th

$1 Exacta (9-8) Paid $202.50
$1 Trifecta (9-8-7) Paid $1,591.70
$1 Superfecta (9-8-7-1) Paid $4,628.20

11th: Hal's Hope (G3), 4+, 1m (DD, Hi-5)

Wilkes has had to deal with an issue or two with Bird Song, but has maintained Unbridled's Song/Bird Town colt as talented as anything he has had in his barn. Chance for a moderate pace gives Leparoux opportunity to cruise up front, something he does well when given opportunity. Price will be right..

Best Value: #3 Bird Song 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Mr. Jordan 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Tommy Macho 9-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #4 Realm 3-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #5 Ami's Flatter 8-1 4th

12th: MCLM/$25k, 3yo, 8.5f-T/48' (Hi-5)

Bad bunch o' coconuts..

Most Likely: #10 Chasing the Dream 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Eye of the Lion 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Albert Charles 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Il Nonno 20-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #8 I'm Majestic 6-1 12th

P5 Grid:

8: 7-9 (A), - (B), 6-8-11-12 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), 1-4-6 (B), 5-9-10 (C)
10: 7 (A), - (B), 1-2-8-9 (C)
11: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
12: 2-3-10 (A), - (B), 1-6-7-8 (C)

All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Simple (A+B): 2x5x1x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

P4 Grid:

9: 2-3 (A), 1-4-6 (B), 5-9-10 (C)
10: 7 (A), 1 (B), 2-8-9 (C)
11: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
12: 2-3-10 (A), - (B), 1-6-7-8 (C)

All A's: 2x1x3x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

Good luck!
Steve