Derby Trail Forums - 8/27: Saratoga ~ Day 32 (147th Travers Day)

Travers Day 2016 shapes up as a Breeders' Cup style card with a P5 sequence featuring fields of 10-11-8-12-10 and a guaranteed stakes P4 with 13-12-7-13. Approach the slate's multis the way you do Breeders Cup, utilizing minimum denominations, strong opinion singles coupled with spreading tactics. Weather is going to be perfect. Main track and turf courses perfect as well. One good pop should make your Travers Day. Let's get lucky and have them travel safely and come home well..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Reckling 4-1: Yet another 2nd timer from Asmussen.. WON ($7.30)
Next Best: #4 Your Secret's Safe 7-2: Klaravich/C. Brown Tapizar primed.. 4th
Best Value: #9 Capitaine 20-1: Hennig colt has prepped brilliantly.. 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Kid Perfect 20-1 9th

2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

A group so tough to separate that it makes P5/P4 ticket-building particularly difficult..

Best Value: #3 Patterson Cross 15-1 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #1 Three Perfections 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Sport 3-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Admiral Blue 12-1 10th

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Threefiveindia 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #1a Cerro 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Annual Report 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Its All Relevant 6-1 4th

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Last Waltz 3-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Stella Rose 5-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #10 Mighty Souper 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Summersault 20-1 8th

5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Mission Driven 8-1: Lack of pace a plus from outside.. 5th
Next Best: #3 Manitoulin 6-1: Showing steady development.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Deeply Undervalued 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Revved Up 3-1 WON ($16.80)

P5 Grid:

1: 3-4 (A), 5-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
2: 1-3-8 (A), – (B), 5-6-10-11 (C)
3: 1-8 (A), 3-6 (B), 4-7 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), – (B), 5-9-10-12 (C)
5: 3-10 (A), – (B), 5-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x2x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

$0.50 Pick-5 (3,7,12,13,14,15/3/8/2,4,8,9,13/5) Paid $1,362.25 (A-A-A-A-C/$260)

P4 Grid:

2: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), 5-6-10-11 (C)
3: 1-8 (A), 3-4-6 (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), - (B), 5-9-10-12 (C)
5: 3-6-10 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/8/2,4,8,9,13/5) Paid $381.25

6th: Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

No particularly strong opinion here. Dallas Stewart has been excellent handling Forever Unbridled and as 3rd choice she provides a nice value. Rosario can't leave her with too much to do though as these 9f affairs have been going to pace players on a regular basis..

Best Value: #3 Forever Unbridled 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Curalina 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 I'm a Chatterbox 4-1 4th

7th: Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Don't have a great feel for this group and happy it's not in the big G1 P4..

Most Likely: #3 Paulassilverlining 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Spelling Again 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Carina Mia 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Wavell Avenue 3-1 6th
Super Add: #2 By the Moon 6-1 2nd

8th: King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Always entertaining. I'll use Star Hill on plays for sanity insurance..

Most Likely: #13 Drefong 4-1 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #5 Bird Song 30-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Summer Revolution 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Fish Trappe Road 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Economic Model 6-1 2nd

9th: Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Going to take view that near-miss types Ready for Rye or Marking get their big win today in somewhat shapeless running of this standard..

Best Value: #9 Ready for Rye 10-1 10th
Next Best: #11 A.P. Indian 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Limousine Liberal 15-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Stallwalkin' Dude 8-1 3rd

10th: Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Flintshire overwhelmingly likely, but barnmate Money Multiplier poised for challenge in event of a miscue..

Most Likely: #6 Flintshire 1-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #2 Money Multiplier 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Grand Tito 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Roman Approval 20-1 6th

11th: Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD)

Trying to build a play in this jumbled sophomore assortment? How about mixing Baffert, Pletcher, Brown and Asmussen with the division leader? Think this is a rare event where you want every style of horse that succeeds should the race unfold into their wheelhouse. American Freedom in the first flight, Connect and Destin stalking, Exaggerator from midpack and Creator seeking a collapse. Pick and choose your preferred set and enjoy..

Most Likely: #2 American Freedom 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Destin 10-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Connect 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Creator 15-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Exaggerator 3-1 11th

P4 Grid:

8: 3-5-13 (A), 1-2-7 (B), 4-6-12 (C)
9: 9-11 (A), 3-8 (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
11: 2-8-10 (A), 1-7-12 (B), 4-9-13-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (9,13/5,11,12/6/1) Paid $103.75

12th: Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Great coda to the day to have Lady Eli return. Won't lose unless something strange happens..

Most Likely: #3 Lady Eli 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Excilly 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Miss Temple City 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Sentiero Italia 9-2 3rd

13th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #11 Kerjillion 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Lotta Gold 20-1 5th
Next Best: #7 I Win 8-1 11th
Exotics Use: #6 The J Y 20-1 7th

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
11: 2-8-10-12 (A), 1-4-7-9 (B), 3-5-13-14 (C)
12: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
13: 11 (A), 1-7 (B), 3-6-9-10-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x8x1x3 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 2x4x1x1 = $8 ($40 for $5)

Good luck!
Steve