Derby Trail Forums - 8/13: Saratoga ~ Day 20 ($43k C/O); Arlington (5th-10th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Dr Luber's Kiss 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Baby Bear's Soup 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Frosti Agosti 5-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Call Me Stoney 9-5 2nd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Do you really want to argue with C. Brown/Woodford TB's $850k Ticonderoga (Tapit out of Proctor's MGSW Keertana) who's working well for debut and gets the rail? Formula One would be an alternative, a $1,700,000 buy at OBS in March that has been steady in the mornings..

Most Likely: #1 Ticonderoga 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Formula One 6-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Good Samaritan 12-1 WON ($20.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Harlan's Hunch 3-1 4th

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Royal Copy 4-1 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #2 Leviathan 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Confederate 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Pretty Boy Flash 7-2 2nd

4th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Midnight Notes 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Husband's Folly 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Sinatra 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Sportscaster 9-2 WON ($12.60)

5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Any Questions 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Thirst for Victory 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Adulation 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Perro Rojo 6-1 4th

P5 Grid:

1: 4-6 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-5 (C)
2: 1-4 (A), - (B), 7-10 (C)
3: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
4: 4-8 (A), 6-10 (B), 1-2-11 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), - (B), 2-4-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

2: 1-4 (A), - (B), 7-10 (C)
3: 1-2-6 (A), 3-8 (B), 4-5 (C)
4: 4-8 (A), 6-10 (B), 1-2-11 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x4x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 5th American St. Leger (G3), 3+, 13.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Da Big Hoss 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #8 Clondow Warrior 9-2 2nd
Best Value: ##10 Billabong 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 O'Prado Ole 12-1 DNF

7th: 40th Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Beach Patrol 2-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #8 Long Island Sound 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Cherry Wine 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 American Patriot 5-1 3rd

8th: 34th Beverly D. (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Sea Calisi 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Ballydoyle 9-2 12th
Best Value: #4 No Fault of Mine 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Zipessa 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Tuttipaesi 20-1 4th

9th: 34th Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T (DD, Million-Fourstardave DBL)

Best Value: #9 Mondialiste 8-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #10 Wake Forest 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Tryster 7-2 8th
Super Add: #11 World Approval 4-1 7th

P4 Grid:

6: 5 (A), 8 (B), 10 (C)
7: 8-9 (A), 1-2-4-7 (B), - (C)
8: 13 (A), 1 (B), 4-5-6-8-9 (C)
9: 9-10 (A), 11-12 (B), 5-6 (C)

Full (A+B): 2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x2x1x2 = $4 ($20 for $5)

$1 P4 (5/7/9-9-13-9) Paid $160.40 ($802.00 for $5)

10th: 53rd Pucker Up (G3), 3yo-F, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Outlandish group of 14. Note that there's not a tremendous amount of pace on..

Best Value: #14 Havana Dream SCR
Next Best: #9 Auntie Joy 7-2 2nd-up via DQ
Exotics Use: #11 Noble Beauty 3-1 WON-up via DQ ($7.20)
Super Add: #7 Nawlins Kitty 12-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Nobody's Fault 20-1 12th

Good luck!
Steve