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-   -   4/15: Keeneland (6th-10th); Oaklawn (7th-10th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59932)

Kasept 04-15-2016 04:57 AM

4/15: Keeneland (6th-10th); Oaklawn (7th-10th)
 
KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Privy Council 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Verve's Tale 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Construe 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Upstage 12-1 8th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Fascinating situation here includes 5yo debut runaway Apologynotaccepted moved to Mott after Happy Alter brought on Gary Barber as a partner v. Mandy's Pope's $2.2MM I'll Take Charge returning as a 4yo under watch of GoldMark Farm trainer Todd Quast..

Most Likely: #5 Apologynotaccepted 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Improv 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 I'll Take Charge 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Purim's Danawa 8-1 6th


8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Wild roundup of really solid ALW runners. Almost none look impossible and given the option of narrow use in earlier races, you could spread wide here..

Best Value: #5 Flatlined 12-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Chipit 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Quiet Ruler 5-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Afford 15-1 11th


9th: 28th Maker's 46 Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Terrific assembly here and Heart to Heart should have real company up front to keep things honest for everybody. Another spot to cast a wide net..

Best Value: #9 Reload 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Tourist 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Are You Kidding Me 12-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Itsaknockout 6-1 6th


10th: MCLM/$30k, 3yo, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Dynamo Ridge 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Regulatory 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Big Joe Candy 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 L T's Best Tale SCR
Hi-5 Play: #6 Going Strong 7-2 WON ($7.00)


P5 Grid:

6: 3-9 (A), - (B), 4-11 (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
8: 5-8-10 (A), 3-4-7 (B), - (C)
9: 4-9 (A), 1-3-7-8 (B), 2 (C)
10: 1-8 (A), - (B), 4-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)


P4 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
8: 5-8-10 (A), 3-4-7 (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-8-9 (A), 3-7 (B), 2 (C)
10: 1-8 (A), 4-7 (B), 5-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x4x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)



OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 29th Bachelor, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #6 Counterforce 2-1 WON ($9.00)
Next Best: #7 Morning Fire 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Will Munnings 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 I Will Score 5-2 2nd


8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Sweet Platinum 9-2 9th
Next Best: #9 Tapit Wicked 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Political Justice 8-1 10th
Super Add: #12 Bo Talon 15-1 6th


9th: 52nd Apple Blossom (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD)

"Horses aren't durable anymore".. except for these 6 fillies and mares I guess who are a combined 94/33-19-13 for $6MM..

Best Value: #5 Forever Unbridled 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #4 Untapable 6-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Tara's Tango 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #1 Call Pat 9-2 5th


10th: MSW, 3+, 5.5f

Most Likely: #8 War Ride 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Front Pocket Money 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #7 El Venue 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Rapid Red 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

7: 6-7 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
8: 1-4-9-12 (A), 2-3-5-7 (B), - (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 3 (B), 1 (C)
10: 6-8 (A), 7 (B), 1-3-4-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x8x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x4x2x2 = $32 ($16 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/5/5/6) Paid $660.00


Good luck!
Steve

tdtony 04-15-2016 07:26 AM

hi steve

in the pick 4 grid in race 8 should the 10 be the 12

maryhope 04-15-2016 07:51 AM

Maryhope
 
Steve, Good luck today and safe journey during the Derby campaign, GOD Bless

jms62 04-15-2016 07:59 AM

We will never get 6/1 on Unbridled Forever.

Kasept 04-15-2016 10:47 AM

KEE SCR/CHG'S

Kasept 04-15-2016 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tdtony (Post 1061976)
hi steve

in the pick 4 grid in race 8 should the 10 be the 12

Yes.. THX Tony! BOL today..

Kasept 04-15-2016 11:41 AM

OP SCR/CHG'S

Kasept 04-15-2016 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maryhope (Post 1061977)
Steve, Good luck today and safe journey during the Derby campaign, GOD Bless

Maryhope..

Thanks so much! Good luck always and kind regards..

Kasept 04-15-2016 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1061978)
We will never get 6/1 on Unbridled Forever.

Agreed. Was discussing with Andy who had discussed with Nick. The wild card is how much interest there is in Tara's Tango. G/L..

casp0555 04-15-2016 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1061978)
We will never get 6/1 on Unbridled Forever.

Jim,
Do you remeber what I said about Unbridled Forever in Vegas?nobody was going to beat her that night..... she did it again :tro:

Kasept 04-15-2016 06:02 PM

Final Apple Blossom odds:

Forever Unbridled 4.20
Streamline 19.90
Tara's Tango 2.40
Untapable 0.90*
Theogony 26.80
Call Pat 6.10

atolunch 04-15-2016 06:14 PM

Great job today Steve!!

Congrats and thanks as always!:$::tro:

Looks like we're headed into another Monster weekend :D

Kasept 04-15-2016 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch (Post 1062057)
Great job today Steve!! Congrats and thanks as always!:$::tro:

Looks like we're headed into another Monster weekend :D

THX Larry.. Needed the Oaklawn pop to clean up the blood bath at KEE. Too bad we couldn't get the firster home. Hope everyone did OK..

Should be a fun Saturday.

Good night from Hot Springs!


maryhope 04-15-2016 10:15 PM

Maryhope
 
Great job at Oaklawn Friday Steve, Life makes sense again , you are the best, Good luck Saturday:)

jms62 04-15-2016 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1062065)
THX Larry.. Needed the Oaklawn pop to clean up the blood bath at KEE. Too bad we couldn't get the firster home. Hope everyone did OK..

Should be a fun Saturday.

Good night from Hot Springs!


:tro: great job at Oaklawn . Keeneland is a Home Run hitters ballpark, just takes 1 swing of the bat.

Kasept 04-16-2016 05:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1062076)
:tro: great job at Oaklawn . Keeneland is a Home Run hitters ballpark, just takes 1 swing of the bat.

THX Jim.. Had the big Blue Grass Saturday at KEE and should take the profit, run and hide. But no.. Back to try again today! G/L later!


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