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-   -   BEL/KEE Saturday March 9th (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59901)

Kitan 04-09-2016 11:34 AM

BEL/KEE Saturday March 9th
 
BEL
Race 6:
#6 Off Limits: Not given much chance in the stretch in NA debut and has decent Irish form
#5 Madam Aamoura: Two wins have come wire to wire...NY turf grab fest to return?
#9 Silverville is SCR...
#2 Tapitry
#7 Iromea

Race 7:

#1 Brooklyn Major: First run with Lasix was his best, then drew widest last out. Two works for this much better than anything previously
#9 Nevisian Sky: Doesn't have to be much to be competitive here
#7 Noon Monsoon is SCR
#10 Jet Black
#3 Benevolence

Race 8:
#5 Royal Obsession: 1.15mil November purchase did nothing wrong to start her career and her last was a strange race...either way they should go quick in here and it should suit
#1 Clair de Lune: Has had it all her own way in her two wins. Short price tough to take not knowing what the sprinter (#6) will do
#2 Lewis Bay: Won a G2 with 115lbs, now has 122
#4 Dreams to Reality

Race 9:
#5 Unified: Won't be easy to repeat dazzling debut and short price is hard to take but 114lbs helps
#4 Awesome Gent: Got it going on the inner, wonder if 7f will stretch him
#6 Cocked and Loaded: Most accomplished but unknown if highweight will bring 2yo form off the layoff
#1 Sallisaw

Race 10:
#2 Adventist: Withers came a bit too soon for him and he lost some momentum on the turn in the Gotham. Bred to route and I like him going forward
#1 Shagaf: On first impression I thought his Gotham was alright...not eye-catching but against the potential bias. But in hindsight I think that race set up well for him and there is no value today
#5 Flexibility: May have needed a bit of freshing up and represents a bit of an overlay
#8 Outwork: Will have to deal with other speed and the 9f (and longer) is a worry

Race 11:
#6 Anchor Down: I can make reasonable excuses for most of his "poor" performances...Salutos isn't 9lbs better than him either
#7 Calculator: Third start of the form cycle from a year long break...Miller wouldn't ship if he wasn't right
#8 Stallwalkin' Dude: 2 for 2 over this strip and can return to form off a confidence boosting win
#5 Salutos Amigos: Another one who likes the course but giving weight going 7f at 2-1 ML is a deterrent. Moves way up though should the rain fall heavily

Race 12:
#2 War Bond should it stay on the turf

$0.60 Pick Four
Race 8: 1, 2, 5
Race 9: 1, 4, 5, 6
Race 10: 1, 2, 5
Race 11: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
$108.00

KEE
Race 6:
#2 Banree: Always had a soft spot for this one and 20-1 ML on a runner who likes the course in a field of five is worth a shot to me
#3 Cathryn Sophia
#4 Rachel's Valentina
#5 Carina Mia

Race 7:
#10 Barbados
#2 Ready for Rye
#9 Holy Boss
#5 Mylute

Race 8:
#9 Commute: Gonna take a shot with him here...Casse must have saw something over the winter time to give him a few turf works and his comeback run was a pretty strong prep for this
#3 Summation Time
#10 Undrafted
#7 Rocket Heat

Race 9:
#4 Sunday Rules: Think she's the speed of the speed and if she can last the 7f she'll be dangerous
#10 Super Majesty: Liked this one in the BC even though I thought it might have come too soon...working well for new barn and can't be dismissed
#13 Spelling Again: Only one loss on a dry main track and that wasn't a bad effort. Should be positioned well
#7 Dancing House
#12 SCM was 2nd last year in this but this is a MUCH tougher field...

Race 10:
#3 Cherry Wine: Left with too much to do in the stretch in the Rebel but that was a good learning experience for this. Note that Lanerie sticks here
#4 Zulu: May be more keyed up with the blinkers on, but should still be a threat late in this weak field
#14 My Man Sam: Much better around the two turns but has it all to do from the parking lot draw
#5 Crescent Drive

Race 11:
#9 She's a Ten
#5 Rebelle
#10 War Baby
#12 Alluring Miss

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 6: 2, 3, 4
Race 7: 2, 5, 9, 10
Race 8: 3, 9
Race 9: 4, 10, 13
Race 10: 3, 4
$86.40

$0.60 Pick Four

Race 7: 2, 5, 9, 10
Race 8: 3, 9
Race 9: 4, 7, 10, 13
Race 10: 3, 4, 5, 14
$76.80

$0.60 Pick Four
Race 8: 3, 9
Race 9: 4, 7, 10, 13
Race 10: 3, 4
Race 11: 5, 9, 10, 12
$38.40

$1 Wood-Bluegrass P4
AQU 9: 4, 5
KEE 9: 4, 10, 13
AQU 10: 1, 2, 5
KEE 10: 3, 4, 5, 14
$72

Good luck!


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