Derby Trail Forums - 1/16: Aqueduct (1st-5th); Gulfstream (7th-12th); Santa Anita (6th-9th)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Wide open P5 sequence to start a really outstanding afternoon of racing nationwide ahead of evening's Eclipse Awards. Sequence offers a seemingly manageable 7x8x7x8x11 skein before SCR's. Off/on rain looks likely..

Though Dilger barn not known for first out success, Gonna Find Her, a half to Clark Brewster/Steve Asmussen quickish Banana Thief, need not be much to win on debut..

Best Value: #6 Gonna Find Her 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Freudsalm 6-5 WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Eastern Mischief 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Good Laugh 8-1 2nd

2nd: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Attractive Ride 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Real Estate Rich 9-2 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #8 Old Mexico 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Castaway 5-1 3rd

3rd: Jazil, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Very nice group of 7 that own 50 wins between them..

Most Likely: #5 Royal Posse 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Stormin Monarcho 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Kid Cruz 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Majestic Affair 4-1 WON ($9.30)

4th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Ideally, you'd like to tiptoe through this with the Linda Rice 2nd time starters Tipit and Hard Hitter. Violette and Terranova FTS both have pedigrees and barns that suggest win-early potential. Lori's Folly was OK in Parx debut..

Most Likely: #7 Tipit 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hard Hitter 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #3 Bermuda Triangle 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Monte Man 6-1 6th

5th: CLM/N3L, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Plenty of speed involved but 2 of the closer candidates have come out..

Best Value: #4 Alysaro 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Regal Minister 7-2 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #10 Mister Popsicle 2-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Francis Freud 20-1 5th

P5 Grid:

1: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
2: 3 (A), 6-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
3: 3-5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-2-7 (C)
4: 7 (A), 8 (B), 3-5-6 (C)
5: 4 (A), 5 (B), 1-7-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $80.50

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/6/4/4,8/5) Paid $498.25

P4 Grid:

2: 3 (A), 6-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
3: 3-5 (A), 4-6 (B), 1-2-7 (C)
4: 7-8 (A), - (B), 3-5-6 (C)
5: 4-5 (A), 2/SCR-7-10 (B), 1-3-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
Full (A/B/C): $74

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/4/4,8/5) Paid $158.75

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: SunMill Turf Sprint-FL, 4+, 5f-T/12' (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Jewel of a Cat 8-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #7 Amelia's Wild Ride 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Summation Time 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Padilla 12-1 5th

8th: OC/C, 4+, 8.5f-T/84' (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Dynamic Impact 4-1 12th
Best Value: #8 Siete C 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Karibu Gardens 10-1 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Winter Springs 8-1 6th

9th: SunMill Distaff-FL, F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Lucky Switch 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Flutterby 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 You Bought Her 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Legal Laura 3-1 3rd

10th: SunMill Turf-FL, 4+, 8.5f-T/84' (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Manchurian High 6-1 WON ($16.40)
Next Best: #2 Fundamental 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Reporting Star 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 My Point Exactly 10-1 10th

11th: SunMill Classic-FL,

Most Likely: #5 Mexicoma 9-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #4 Saraguaro 5-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Morgans Harbor 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Catholic Cowboy 12-1 3rd

12th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Hi-5)

Outstanding and likely important diploma opportunity. Would use 9 of the 12 if I could..

Best Value: #5 Shupanga 20-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Sharp Azteca 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Street Gray 12-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Miles of Humor 12-1 4th

P5 Grid:

8: 8-10 (A), 2-6 (B), 7-9-13 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), 4-8-11 (C)
11: 5 (A), 4 (B), 1-7-9-10 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), 9 (B), 3-4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x2x3 = 192 x .50 = $96

P4 Grid:

9: 3-5 (A), 4-8 (B), 1-7 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), 11 (B), 4-8 (C)
11: 5 (A), 4 (B), 1-7-9-10 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), 3-4-7-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Baffert/Susan Chu Speightstown Power Cat working like a special filly..

Most Likely: #8 Power Cat 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Smart Win 15-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Lily 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Dancing Ava 6-1 4th

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Bottle Blonde 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Belle Et Bete 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Vanlose Stairway 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Native Heart 20-1 8th

7th: 42nd La Canada (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Yahilwa 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Taris 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Illuminant 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Birdatthewire 3-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Terrific group of ALW fillies down the hill. One of day's best betting races. Will key Perdona liberally..

Most Likely: #7 PERDONA 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Hard Night's Day 7-2 10th
Best Value: #8 Little Treasure 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Entrechat 7-2 4th
Super Add: #9 Whisk 15-1 5th

9th: MCLM/$20k, 3yo-F, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

$20k Hi-5 C/O here..

Bad bunch o' coconuts. Pick & Pray..

Best Value: #2 Evening Again 12-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Avaudrey SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Two Steps of Glory 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #10 Old Hollywood 7-2 8th
Hi-5 Play: #8 B K Miss 30-1 9th

P4 Grid:

6: 7 (A), 2-6 (B), 8-9-11 (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 2-6 (B), 3 (C)
8: 7 (A), 2 (B), 1-5-8-9 (C)
9: 2-9/SCR-11 (A), 7-8-10 (B), 1-3-4-5-6-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $76.50 (With $1 All A's Play)

Good luck!
Steve