Derby Trail Forums - 12/12: Aqueduct ($134k C/O); Gulfstream (7th-11th); Los Alamitos (6th-9th)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$134k DBL C/O starts here..

Very difficult sequence for two day P6 pot with 9x8x9x10x8x11 hill to climb before SCR's. There are a few more likely types sprinkled in the sextet, but no glaring singles making things hard for narrow plays. First leg a perfect example with lightly raced Nobody Move, I'm Funny How and Zoo Yorker quite OK among a cast of suspects, but there doesn't seem to be any instant tosses out of the other 7 including Hushion firster Information Center and MSW/MCLM class dropping/surface swapping Courageous Colonel and Domus. Even 0/11 Guyana Cat looks possible given last 2 were best yet. Pace looks honest enough too, so anyone good enough should have their chance..

Most Likely: #4 Nobody Move 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Zoo Yorker 5-2 WON ($8.90)
Best Value: #3 Guyana Cat 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 I'm Funny How 8-1 3rd

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

An equally tricky set with major class relief available to Jack O Liam, Total Joint & Village Warrior. Though not a claiming spot, doesn't Village Warrior look a lot like Don'tbetwithbruno last week here returning to scene of best efforts. Total Joint should get a nice pace to chase..

Most Likely: #3 Total Joint 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Village Warrior 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Groupthink 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Petrocelli 6-1 7th

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Another tough call to start the P4 with a murky pace picture adding to difficulty. Gargan off the claim (SCR'D Lifes Reward), Jere. Englehardt returning to earth with Indy-bred (Twice Mike), Droppers Looking Cool & Grandpa Len all viable. Marriage Fever is 20-1, circling towards a good effort and won a S/ALW, over Village Warrior (!), in lone try on the inner 365 days ago..

Most Likely: #7 Finn's Quest 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Marriage Fever 20-1 WON ($18.80)
Next Best: #3 Looking Cool 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Grandpa Len 8-1 2nd

7th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

And the hits keep coming.. Terrific group includes returning Remsen winner from a year ago in Leave the Light On. Wouldn't assume he comes back as the same front end runner he was as 2yo based on worktab. Our Caravan nabbed by savviest operator out there in Dubb and can sit close to whatever pace materializes. Farhaan and North Slope the other two obvious players. Dance Champion is working at Payson Park but hasn't shown up as a SCR, so it looks like he was sent back for this..

Best Value: #5 Our Caravan 8-1 WON ($18.60)
Next Best: #1 Leave the Light On 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Dance Champion 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Farhaan 10-1 3rd

8th: 2nd Bay Ridge-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

No trick ID'ing the prime candidates (2-3-4-6-8), but a little harder defining how many are necessary to get through to nightcap. Sheriffa the one to catch in the stretch..

Most Likely: #8 Temper Mint Patty 2-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Sheriffa 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Saythreehailmarys 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Flipcup 5-2 5th

9th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f

As discussed with Nick Tammaro on ATR Weekend Preview, some classy NY pedigrees on display here, but feels wide open with 5 FTS adding to the intrigue. Progno shows up from Finger Lakes with 2nd timer Freud's Affair who is going to overlooked but is out of a SW dam and adds Lasix. Surprise package.

Best Value: #1 Freud's Affair 15-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Gaming 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Fumin Newman 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #9 Guardian 7-2 4th

P6 Grid:

4: 4-7 (A), 3-9 (B), 1-6 (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
6: 7 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-8 (C)
7: 5 (A), 1-7 (B), 2-4 (C)
8: 8 (A), 6 (B), 2-3-4 (C)
9: 1-11 (A), - (B), 3-5-8-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x3x2x2 = 144 x $2 = $288

P4 Grid:

6: 7 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-8 (C)
7: 1-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-8-10 (C)
8: 8 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-3 (C)
9: 1-11 (A), 8-9 (B), 3-5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/5/4/8) Paid $960.00

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7.5f-T/108' (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Marshall Eddy 15-1 10th
Next Best: #13 War Order 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Gimlet 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Kismet's Heels 4-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Cat Tree 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #8 Prospectus 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Final Encore 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Picadilly Roadster 10-1 4th

9th: 11th South Beach, F&M-3+, 7.5f-T/36' (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Hope Cross 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Night Song 15-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Lori's Store 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Dauphine Russe 4-1 8th

10th: 5th Harlan's Holiday, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Encryption 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Mexikoma 8-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Lynx 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Valid 5-2 WON ($5.60)

11th: 4th El Prado, 3+, 8.5f-T/36' (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Victory Exchange 12-1 Late SCR
Next Best: #1 Aztec Brave 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Reporting Star 5-1 WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #2 Slim Shadey 15-1 7th

P5 Grid:

7: 6 (A), 1-13 (B), 2-5-7 (C)
8: 9 (A), 8-11 (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 1-9-10 (C)
10: 6-7 (A), 2-9 (B), 1-4-10 (C)
11: 1-4/SCR (A), 2-10 (B), 3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

P4 Grid:

8: 9 (A), 8-11 (B), 4-6 (C)
9: 6 (A), 9-10 (B), 1-3-7-8 (C)
10: 6-7 (A), 2-9 (B), 1-4-10 (C)
11: 1-4/SCR (A), 2-10 (B), 3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

LOS ALAMITOS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Starlet (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

This is a much better race than people are acknowledging. One paced Surfside Tiara should appreciate the long stretch..

Most Likely: #6 Surfside Tiara 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Pacific Heat 3-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Mama's Sugar 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Pretty N Cool 5-1 4th

Good luck!
Steve