Derby Trail Forums - 11/21: Aqueduct (6th-9th); Delta Downs (4th-7th); Del Mar ($41k/$14k C/O's)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Silver Romeo 7-2: Blinks for 2nd start says go.. 10th
Best Value: #2 Malibu Action 6-1: Hales from fast, win early family.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 The Big Mo 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Musical Comedy 6-1 6th

7th: OC/100-C, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Serious group dotted with stakes runners and a murky pace scenario..

Best Value: #5 Noble Cornerstone 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 My Lute 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Big Business 7-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Norumbega 8-1 6th

8th: 1st Artie Schiller, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Terrific assembly and too many interested in front end for this not to have honest pace..

Most Likely: #4 Lubash 3-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Vision Perfect 20-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sky Flight 6-1 WON ($12.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Slip By 10-1 9th

9th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f

Most Likely: #6 Willie's Mojo 7-2 9th
Best Value: #11 Guardian 5-1 8th
Next Best: #1 New York Song 9-2 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Foggy Mountain Cat 12-1 11th

P4 Grid:

6: 2-10 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-4-8 (C)
7: 5-6 (A), - (B), 4-7-8 (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 1-3-6-10 (B), 2-7-9 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-11 (B), 5-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

DELTA DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 7th LA Legacy, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Our Rapidash 2-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Sea Vow 6-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #7 G's Josh 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Masterly 8-1 7th

5th: Delta Mile, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Departing 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Cougar Ridge 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Rise Up 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Agent Di Nozzo 9-2 5th

6th: Delta Princess (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 La Appassionata 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Learning Curve 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Above Fashion 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Jet Black Magic 6-1 WON ($21.40)

7th: Delta Jackpot (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Should be plenty of pace here which gives favored Exaggerator every opportunity to sit and pounce. Sunny Ridge cleverly redirected for this rich spot by Servis out of excellent Champagne try..

Most Likely: #9 Exaggerator 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #3 Sunny Ridge 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Harlan Punch 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Whitmore 8-1 5th

P4 Grid:

4: 4 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-2-6 (C)
5: 1-7 (A), 2-5-6 (B), - (C)
6: 6 (A), - (B), 2-3-4 (C)
7: 3-9 (A), 2-4-5 (B), 1-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x1x5 = $75 ($37.50 for .50)

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Chips All In 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Boozer 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Chief Lion 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Clever Royal 6-1 8th

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rattataptap 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #1 Pica 7-2 DNF-Pulled up
Best Value: #6 All Star Bub 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Melanistic 5-1 5th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Whispering Softly 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Wishful Winking 8-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Jeremy's Legacy 5-1 WON ($15.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Kihei Sunset 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Sassy Ashley 5-1 8th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Josephine's Moment 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Stealth Drone 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Wheatfield 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Master the Blues 7-2 5th

8th: 50th Red Carpet H. (G3), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD)

Feels like 9 of the 11 can win this with just 30-1 Tiz Kissable and 20-1 Havanna Belle looking over-matched. As Hammer opined, not a great deal of pace signed on, so up close stalker types may be prime..

Best Value: #1 Energia Fribby 12-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Beat of the Drum 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Rusty Slipper 5-1 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #8 Customer Base 15-1 6th

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

$14k Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #7 Apollo Ten 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Newfound Gold 9-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #3 Caminetto 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Hadfunlastnight 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 My Secret Affair 15-1 2nd

$2 Exact 5 (4-6-3-7-2) Paid $18,496.60

P6 Grid:

4: 1 (A), 8 (B), 3-4 (C)
5: 2 (A), 1 (B), 5-6 (C)
6: 6 (A), 1-11 (B), 8-9 (C)
7: 8 (A), - (B), 3-5-7 (C)
8: 1-4 (A), 11 (B), 8-9 (C)
9: 7 (A), 3-4 (B), 1-2-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x1x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216

P4 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 1-11 (B), 8-9 (C)
7: 3-8 (A), 5-7 (B), 4 (C)
8: 1-4 (A), 8-9-11 (B), 2-5-6-10 (C)
9: 7 (A), 3-4 (B), 1-2-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90

$0.50 Pick-4 (11/3/11/4) Paid $424.40

Good luck!
Steve