Derby Trail Forums - 8/24: Saratoga (Day 28; $418k C/O; Summer Colony)

Bypassed offering opinions or playing much Sunday and feel like it was a wise decision with the P6 carryover sequence proving treacherous and unhittable. Had variety of odd successes and miscues Saturday and Week 5 closes with an approachable sextet with $418k in the kitty to start. With addition of American Pharoah to the Travers, the season highlight becomes that much more special. Let's get ready for Travers Week with a big day today!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Frosty Margarita 3-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #1 Legend of Lorelei 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Flatware 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Gregorian Gold 15-1 2nd

2nd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4,. P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Thomas Hill 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Make My Saturday 4-1 WON ($18.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Great Attack 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Mish Mosh 3-1 5th

3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Two Taps 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Regent's House 2-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Titanium 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Callista 3-1 WON ($6.40)

4th: NY-MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$418k DBL P6 C/O starts here..

Messy opener to the P6 with several modestly-talented state bred fillies, several of which have license to graduate. Shotgun Love (half to Lovely Syn) is overdue and last pair can be crossed out. Worked nicely for 2nd try at level and Alvarado can survey pace from outside. Square price to work with too..

Best Value: #8 Shotgun Love 6-1 WON ($5.30)
Next Best: #4 Little Mary Ellen 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Glare Ice 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Yourcreditisgood 5-1 3rd

5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 9f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Terrific six pack of quality turf 3yo's, one or two of which may wind up in the QEII at KEE..

Best Value: #6 Elementsofharmony 10-1: Wired debut and can do it again.. 4th
Next Best: #1 Tapitry 2-1: Shug charge keeps good company; Logical.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Courageisamajority 8-1: Emerging Motion Md'O beat next out Ack Naughty last.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Five Hearts 12-1: Expect big move up with Mott, Lasix.. 6th

P5 Grid:

1: 6 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
2: 6 (A), 1-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
3: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6 (C)
4: 4-8 (A), 2-3-5 (B), 7-9 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 2-5 (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

P4 Grid:

2: 6 (A), 1-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
3: 1-5 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6 (C)
4: 4-8 (A), 2-3-5-7 (B), 9 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 2-5 (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Rachel's first foal, Jess's Dream (Curlin), debuts here and he didn't find a cozy spot. 1-4-5-8 exit hot race at this trip that delivered Gangster and all four of those have to be respected ahead of the son of 2 Horses of the Year. To his credit, Jess's Dream held own against Tamarkuz in recent drill..

Most Likely: #1 All Rise 5-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Securitiz 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Godrevy 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Jess's Dream 7-2 WON ($8.50)

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Rafael Hernandez and Corey Lanerie are 1-for-98 between them, but I still want Special Selection (12-1) and Analysis (15-1) at the top of my plays in this typically wide open state-bred turf ALW..

Best Value: #3 Analysis 15-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Special Selection 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Readthepropectus 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #7 Wildniteattheopera 5-1 8th

8th: Summer Colony, F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tiz So Sweet 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Montana Native 7-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Catch My Drift 2-1 WON ($7.20)

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 9f-IT

Most Likely: #2 Cosmic Tale 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Hope's Roar 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Weekend Hottie 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Justenuffdior 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 That Warrior Girl 30-1 8th

P6 Grid:

4: 8 (A), 4 (B), 2-3 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 2-5 (B), 3-4 (C)
6: 1 (A), 8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
7: 3 (A), 2-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 2 (A), 10 (B), 3-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
Full (A/B/C): $136

P4 Grid:

6: 1-8 (A), 3-4-5 (B), 2 (C)
7: 3 (A), 2-5 (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 1 (A), 4 (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 2-10 (A), 3-4-8 (B), 1-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x2x5 = 150 x $.50 = $75
Full (A/B/C): $54.50 (With $1 All A's Play)

Good luck!
Steve