Derby Trail Forums - 4/4: Aqueduct (2-12); Keeneland (6-10); Santa Anita (6-11)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Brass Pear 6-5 5th
Next Best: #3 Smokem's Charm 12-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Frisky Warrior 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Free Mugatu 6-1 2nd

3rd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Ekhlaas 7-5 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #2 Defined 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Sir Dream a Lot 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Fitzgerald 5-2 3rd

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Winter Games 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Gold Shield 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Ice Cream Truck 8-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Zingarelli 5-2 WON ($5.00)

5th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 One Sided 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Rectify 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #11 Chief of State 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 How Frosty It Is 12-1 7th

P4 Grid:

2: 1-3 (A), 2-4-6 (B), 8 (C)
3: 1 (A), 2 (B), 4-6 (C)
4: 3-8 (A), 4-5-6 (B), 2-7 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), - (B), 1-5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50
Full (A/B/C): $65 (With $1 All 'A' Play)

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Thankful this isn't in any of the big PX sequences because it's an impossible group. Take shot(s)..

Best Value: #7 Chapman 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Curious Cal 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Sassicaia 4-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Leilani's Ticket 10-1 Eased Stretch

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$22k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Best Value: #7 Testosterstone 20-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Longfor the City 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Ostralenko 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #3 Moneyinyour Pocket 10-1 5th

8th: Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wonder Gal 7-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Sweet Corine 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Puca 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Condo Commando 8-5 WON ($3.30)

9th: Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most likely: #8 Majestic Affair 6-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Ackeret 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Ready for Rye 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lord Nelson 2-1 2nd

10th: Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 El Kabeir 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Tencendur 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Frosted 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Daredevil 9-5 4th

11th: Carter H. (G1), 4+, 7f (DD)

Best Value: #6 Palace 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 The Big Beast 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Dad's Caps 7-2 WON ($13.40)
Super Add: #2 Clearly Now 4-1 6th

12th: CLM, 4+, 7f

Best Value: #3 Dighton 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Writingonthewall 3-1 -
Exotics Use: #5 Finding Candy 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Frazil 15-1 -

P4 Grid:

9: 7-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 5-6 (C)
10: 4-5 (A), 7 (B), 1-2-3-6 (C)
11: 3-6 (A), 1-2 (B), 7 (C)
12: 3 (A), 5-11 (B), 8-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $78

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P6, P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lady Sabelia 3-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Princess Violet 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Wedding Toast 4-1 4th

7th: Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 C. Zee 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 I Got It All 5-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Jessica's Star 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Bourbon Courage 3-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Kobe's Back 5-2 WON ($7.60)

8th: Shakertown (G3), 4+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

After half foot of rain, think you're safe assuming yielding to soft turf..

Most Likely: #10 Power Alert 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Something Extra 10-1 WON ($18.40)
Next Best: #11 Amelia's Wild Ride 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #13 Undrafted 5-2 3rd

9th: Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most manic of the day's 4 Oaks preps. All 7 eligible for laurels..

Most Likely: #6 Lovely Maria 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #4 Angela Renee 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Lassofthemohicans 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Peace and War 3-1 7th

10th: Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Have been trying to build case for going against Carpe Diem all week but he merits top status going in. Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Pepper Roani are the ones I'll tinker with over and around him..

Most Likely: #5 Carpe Diem 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #8 Danzig Moon 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Pepper Roani 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho 6-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), 2-3-4-5 (B), 6 (C)
8: 10 (A), 4-11-13 (B), 12 (C)
9: 6 (A), 4 (B), 1-2-3-5-7 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-4-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
Full (A/B/C): $69 (With $1 All 'A' Play) $0.50 Pick-4 (2/4/6/5) Paid $120.25

11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Groovy A 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 High Ridge Road 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Classyshadesofgrey 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Heart of Midway 6-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Carolina Jasmine 6-1 8th

P4 Grid:

8: 4-10 (A), 11-12-13 (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), 4 (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-3-8 (B), 2-4-6-7 (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 2-10 (B), 6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x4x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
Full (A/B/C): $60 (With $1 All 'A' Play)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Cal-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$39k C/O Starts Here..

Best Value: #4 Deputy Heat 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Zinvor 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Turn On the Pumps 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Cardiac 15-1 6th

7th: 76th Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Luminance 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Wild at Heart 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Stellar Wind 9-5 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Curlin's Fox 4-1 4th

8th: 78th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Dortmund 3-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #5 Prospect Park 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 One Lucky Dane 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Bolo 4-1 3rd

9th: 35th Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Entrechat 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Prize Exhibit 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Spanish Queen 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Spirit of Xian 6-1 WON ($35.60)

10th: 4th Evening Jewel-R, 3yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Best Value: #13 Easter Fever 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Long Hot Summer 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Bad Ju Ju 4-1 12th
Super Add: #10 Jenna's Faith 8-1 6th

11th: 11th Thunder Road, 4+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Pure Tactics 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Talco 4-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Winning Prize 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Enterprising 8-1 10th

P6 Grid:

6: 4 (A), 2-10 (B), 5-7-8 (C)
7: 5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 1 (A), 2-5 (B), 4 (C)
9: 4 (A), 8 (B), 6-10 (C)
10: 13 (A), - (B), 1-5-10 (C)
11: 7 (A), 4-6 (B), 2 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $192

P4 Grid:

8: 1-5 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-6(C)
9: 4 (A), 6-8 (B), 10-11 (C)
10: 1-13 (A), 5-10 (B), 2-9 (C)
11: 7 (A), 4-6 (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $51 (With $1 All 'A' Play)

Good luck!
Steve