Derby Trail Forums - 2/28: Gulfstream Park (4th-12th)

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

DRF PmM Clocker Mike Vesce hasn't been wrong with his raves all winter and he had strong positives about Motion's Donworth on air and in print. Not hard to get behind in event where more than half are making debuts. Perkins' Easy to Say is half to SW New Farm brother Hardened Wildcat and Vengeful Wildcat..

Best Value: #6 Donworth 15-1
Next Best: #10 Easy to Say 3-1
Exotics Use: #9 Icefield 4-1
Super Add: #3 Captain Moss 12-1

5th: Herecomesthebride (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/36' (P3, DD)

Hard to argue against lawn rangers Chad Brown (8), Christophe Clement (4) & Bill Mott (5). Morales' Devine Aida is legit and though she starts the bidding at 7-2, will likely float higher in the face of the bigger name outfits..

Most Likely: #8 Consumer Credit 9-5
Best Value: #4 Pine Needles 8-1
Next Best: #1 Devine Aida 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Quality Rocks 5-2

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T/108' (P3, DD)

There is next to no speed in here, so let's take a shot that Secretive (20-1) leads this group all the way around. No Surrender's female family includes 2nd dam Doubles Partner, sister of Joyeaux Danseur, so there's some chance he takes to the lawn. Good race to play around given its' absence from the late multis..

Best Value: #9 Secretive 20-1
Next Best: #4 No Surrender 8-1
Exotics Use: #6 Tagheeb 8-1
Super Add: #11 Sycamore Lane 5-1

7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Tried to beat Khozan with Wisecracker in their debuts and Distorted Humor colt hardly disappointed beaten just 3L at 5-1. Has progressed since bow and despite presence of some solid players here, shouldn't lose..

Most Likely: #10 Wisecracker 6-5
Next Best: #7 Unbridled Juan 9-2
Best Value: #1 Semblance of Order 15-1
Exotics Use: #5 Seeking Alpha 6-1

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Feathered at even money is silly given there are 3-4 of these that have already equaled or bettered her 2yo form. Nafzger advanced Makin' Sense training with turf route tightener and now turns her back while adding blinkers. Climb aboard at double digts..

SCR'S 1-3-8-11 take Spark & Danzatrice out of plays..

Best Value: #2 Makin' Sense 15-1
Next Best: #4 Feathered 1-1
Exotics Use: #7 Huasca 6-1
Super Add: #6 Skywarm 8-1

9th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Yikes.. Wide open scrum with tons of pace pressing types likely to make this collapse. Don't know how else to play it.

Best Value: #10 Joh's Gone Wild 15-1
Next Best: #7 Piloting 10-1
Exotics Use: #9 Flash Paws 10-1
Super Add: #4 Hot Hot Heat 12-1

10th: Swale (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

That's an ugly stat that DRF Formulator's Mike Hogan unearthed regard TAP & Daredevil: "Pletcher is 12-1-1-1 with a $0.24 ROI over the past five years going route to sprint in graded stakes following a layoff of 61 days or more." (Here's the list.) Doesn't mean he's not winning as Daredevil plenty talented and capable, but certainly good fodder for those playing against..

Most Likely: #1 Daredevil 1-1
Best Value: #6 Grand Bili 15-1
Next Best: #7 X Y Jet 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 Senor Grits 12-1

11th: Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T/108' (DD)

Would be delighted to see the Kentucky outfits best the obvious big name NY conditioners in this 3yo grass test. Hard not to be rooting for any Garry Simms horse and this Ol' Memorial homebred colt by Stroll always acquits himself well. As Buff Bradley himself said, given the way he typically prepares horses for debuts, Divisidero (10-1) has to be a talent to win first out..

Most Likely: #10 Croninthebarbarian 7-2
Next Best: #5 Dubai Sky 3-1
Best Value: #9 Divisidero 10-1
Exotics Use: #6 Night Prowler 5-2
Super Add: #2 Eh Cumpari 6-1

12th: MSW, 4+, 7.5f-T/36' (Super Hi-5)

Impossible looking nightcap to end fun sequence. Use as many as you can afford because chaos looms..

Best Value: #11 Butterfly Strike 12-1
Next Best: #5 Fair Prospect 7-2
Exotics Use: #10 Uptown Joe 10-1
Super Add: #1 Indian Guide 6-1
Hi-5 Play: #4 Veya 10-1

P5 Grid:

8: - (A), - (B), - (C)
9: - (A), - (B), - (C)
10: - (A), - (B), - (C)
11: - (A), - (B), - (C)
12: - (A), - (B), - (C)

P4 Grid:

9: - (A), - (B), - (C)
10: - (A), - (B), - (C)
11: - (A), - (B), - (C)
12: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Good luck!
Steve