Derby Trail Forums - 12/6: Gulfstream (Opening Day); Aqueduct (6th-9th)

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T/72' (P3, DD)

First of season and card that includes 8 eye-crossing fields of 14 and 2 of 10. Favored Costenia on a roll since modest maiden break at Spa and draw perfectly for up close stalking trip. No shortage of well-priced alternatives including some posted outside, who have better opportunity when the rails are set wide (note 72' configuration) than when the 'inner' half of course is employed (as it is in the 2nd)..

Most Likely: #2 Costenia 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #10 Workerbee 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Cash For Ever 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Market Magic 12-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Takethedoeandrun 8-1 14th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T/0' (P4, P3, DD)

Strawbridge mare Dynamic Cat (Dynaformer) has dropped stakes winners (Cat's Holiday; Appealing Cat; Dynamic Holiday) with alacrity and Cat Humor (Distorted Humor) has every opportunity to kick start career here getting turf debut at a nice number; Highly logical Red Guard (Bernardini) is a half to Summer Front (War Front) and Laragh (Tapit), but note that he had been intended to run in NY last week and only just shipped down to FL. Horses who have acclimated off the North to South ship generally have an advantage; 'Win early' trainer Nicks adds blinkers (21%, $1.15) to Novak (Sky Mesa) in that one's 2nd career start (20%, $1.46) and first on turf (15%, $2.70); Clement's More Front (War Front) shipped to FL early and got a Calder start in ahead of this; Pletcher debuts Confidant (Street Boss) here whose half brother Dawly (!) shows up in the CC Jewel to end the day. Pletcher also gets Flight to Quality (Speightstown) on the turf in this event with a right to like the surface as his unraced dam Forever After (Sadler's Wells) is a half sister to the likes of Meteor Storm (2004 Manhattan & MG1P) and Polish Summer (2004 Sheema Classic & MG1P)..

Best Value: #1 Cat Humor 20-1 6th
Logical Favorite: #9 Red Guard 9-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Novak 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Confidant 6-1 10th
Super Add: #13 Flight to Quality 6-1 11th

3rd: CC Iron Horse, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

First of 8 impossibly difficult puzzles and will start by looking elsewhere than 5-2 fave Gimmeadrink whose best on dirt won't beat several here..

Most Likely: #6 J B's Unc 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value:#7 Feisty Albert 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Francois 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Double Judge 30-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Gimmeadrink 5-2 9th

4th: CC Express, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

To steal a paraphrase from Edward G. Robinson in Little Caesar, "Is this the end of Ribo?". Hard to lean on hard knocker, even in return to more appropriate company..

Most Likely: #5 Blings Express 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Ribo Bobo 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Frontier Warrior 9-2 7th
Best Value: #8 Loverbill 15-1 WON ($16.80)
Super Add: #10 Disarm 6-1 6th

5th: CC Tiara, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T/72' (Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

What to do with '13 Tiara runner up Rock On Baby, who hasn't been seen since -- wait for it -- last year's Tiara? Dun Won jumps off the page for me having been competitive across the turnpike in the Cellars Shiraz versus next out GSW Daring Kathy. Will be interesting to see if 10-1 ML holds..

Best Value: #7 Dun Won 10-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Flamingo Lane 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Tippie Tap 20-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Rock On Baby 15-1 2nd
Must Include: #6 Wild Swava 3-1 3rd

$60 P4 Grid:

2: 1-9 (A), 3-6-13 (B), 7-8 (C)
3: 6 (A), 4-7 (B), 3-9 (C)
4: 5 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-8-10 (C)
5: 4-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 2-6 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $60 (All .50)
Simple (A+B): 5x3x3x4 = 180 x .50 = $90

6th: CC Glass Slipper, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Best Behavior 9-2 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #14 Rebecca's Surprise 7-2 7th
Best Value: #13 Courtney Ryan 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #8 Claiming Victory 8-1 14th
Super Add: #9 Pebble Beach Baby 5-1 3rd

7th: CC Canterbury, 3+, 5f-T/72' (P4, P3, DD)

Serious set of turf sprinters for this including graded stakes performer Mr Online. Option abound though.. "Candygram for Mongo?"

Most Likely: #3 Mr. Online 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Mongolian Saturday 15-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Mongol Bull 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Amerlia's Wild Ride 15-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Moonwalker 20-1 7th

8th: CC Rapid Transit, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Grande Shores 7-2 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #10 Monty Haul 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Stallwalkin' Dude 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Goodtimehadbyall 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Fundit 12-1 5th

$1 Exacta (11-4) Paid $25.20
$1 Trifecta (11-4-10) Paid $166.40
$1 Superfecta (11-4-10-7) Paid $674.70

9th: CC Emerald, 3+, 8.5f-T/0' (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Dreams Cut Short 10-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Longhunter 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 El Jefe Grande 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #13 Saffron Hall 5-1 WON ($13.00)
Super Add: #12 Lasso 30-1 11th

10th: CC Jewel, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Superb finale to numbingly deep day..

Most Likely: #8 He's So Fine 5-1 13th
Best Value: #10 Viramundo 20-1 11th
Next Best: #2 Dawly 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Paige McKenna 9-2 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #1 Cerro 4-1 3rd

$73 P5 Grid:

6: 3 (A), 14 (B), 2-8-9-13 (C)
7: 3 (A), 2-13 (B), 1-4-5-6-9-14 (C)
8: 10-11 (A), 7 (B), 1-4-8 (C)
9: 9-11 (A), 7-13 (B), 2-12 (C)
10: 8 (A), 10 (B), 1-2-3-5-11-12 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $73 (All .50)
Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$68 P4 Grid:

7: 3 (A), 2-13 (B), 1-4-5-6-9-14 (C)
8: 10-11 (A), 7 (B), 1-4-8 (C)
9: 9-11 (A), 7-13 (B), 2-12 (C)
10: 8 (A), 2-10-12 (B), 1-3-5-11 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $68 (All .50)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Man of Mystery 5th
Next Best: #11 Groupthink 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Curious Cal WON ($8.50)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Salisbury Knight 2-1 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #10 Spider Roll 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Adam's Note 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Spinning for Home 8-1 5th

8th: 29th Garland of Roses, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Winning Image 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Willet 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1e Hushion entry 7-2 5th/6th
Best Value: #8 Sounds of the City 8-1 4th

9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 2yo, 6f

Most Likely: #7 Fit to Keep 5-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Worbothor 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Can't Catch Jack 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Jacopo 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 B. B.'s Remington 6-1 WON ($6.00)

$63.50 P4 Grid:

6: 8-11 (A), 7-12 (B), 1 (C)
7: 2 (A), 10 (B), 4-5-6-7-8 (C)
8: 4 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
9: 3-7-8 (A), 4-5-11 (B), 1-9 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $63.50 (All .50)
Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve