Derby Trail Forums - 11/15: Laurel (4th-6th); Churchill (7th-10th); Del Mar ($147k C/O)

LAUREL PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

Thoroughly terrific card at Laurel and the middle portion of the slate has several horses to work around at attractive prices..

4th: City of Laurel, 3yo, 7f (P3, Super Hi-5)

Cast of 14 and NY-bred Eye Luv Lulu looks prime on turnback from Empire Classic. Understand Carlos Martin trying Pollard's Vision gelding at routes but closing into sprint paces may prove out as his forte. Kellyn Gorder an assassin and Bump Start's Gallant Bob (G3) try would impact this significantly. Santana an able substitute for prego Rosie. Tim Hills has quietly had an excellent year and Griff is going to sit a beautiful inside mid-pack stalking trip at fat number..

Most Likely: #10 Eye Luv Lulu 12-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Bump Start 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Griff 15-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Souper Lucky 6-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #8 Lynx 4-1 5th

5th: Safely Kept, 3yo-F, 7f (Jackpot P5, Super Hi-5)

Hills again in this filly version, as True Romance and Bravo get to survey field from widest berth. Sprinty chestnut showed ability to stalk from outside in debut, so don't think she has to be hustled early to clear. Cherie's A.P. tried heavy heads at KEE after topping elders during 3 race skein at Chuck Town and gets Dunkelberger back for first attempt at black type. Price will be right. Contessa's Indian Charlie filly Shayjolie another that found deep water at KEE, 4th behind Taris & Co. in the Raven Run. Fits here as one of the likelies..

Most Likely: #14 True Romance 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Shayjolie 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Cherie's A.P. 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #13 My T Swift 15-1 11th
Super/Hi-5: #9 Take the Odds 5-1 6th

6th: Dickie Small, 3+, 9f (P4, Super Hi-5)

Stormin Monarcho a very likely winner here making P3 very attractive.

Most Likely: #7 STORMIN MONARCHO 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #12 Sioux 15-1 8th
Next Best: #13 Neck 'n Neck 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Beautyinthepulpit 15-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #5 Bold Curlin 12-1 7th

<$35 P3 Grid:

4: 10-12 (A), 1-4 (B), 8-11 (C)
5: 3-14 (A), 8-13 (B), 1-6-7-9 (C)
6: 7 (A), 12-13 (B), 5-6-8 (C)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P3: 10,12 with 3,14 with 7 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P3: 1,4 with 3,14 with 7 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P3: 10,12 with 8,13 with 7 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P3: 10,12 with 3,14 with 12,13 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

5 $0.50 pick P3: 1,4 with 8,13 with 7 - $2.00
6 $0.50 pick P3: 1,4 with 3,14 with 12,13 - $4.00
7 $0.50 pick P3: 10,12 with 8,13 with 12,13 - $4.00

A's with One C

8 $0.50 pick P3: 8,11 with 3,14 with 7 - $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P3: 10,12 with 1,6,7,9 with 7 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P3: 10,12 with 3,14 with 5,6,8 - $6.00

Total: $34.00

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 11th Commonwealth Turf (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Heart to Heart 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #11 Afortable 15-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Captain Dixie 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Highball 10-1 4th

8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Tapit Wicked 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Bo Talon 12-1 WON ($54.00)
Next Best: #6 Tale of Beaucette 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Here Sir 12-1 5th

9th: 24th Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #4 Sparkling Review 10-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #11 Lady Lara 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #13 Walk Close 12-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Testa Rossi 4-1 7th

10th: MCLM/$10k, 3yo, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Blacklisted 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Colt Weston 15-1 9th
Next Best: #12 Top Priority 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Mr. Oso 8-1 10th
Super/Hi-5: #9 Bourbon Chase 4-1 6th

<$65 P4 Grid:

7: 5 (A), 10-11 (B), 3-9-13 (C)
8: 12 (A), 3-5-6 (B), 8-9-11 (C)
9: 4-11 (A), 1-13 (B), 6-8-9-12 (C)
10: 4 (A), 1-2-3-9-12 (B), 5-6 (C)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 5 with 12 with 4,11 with 4 - $2.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 10,11 with 12 with 4,11 with 4 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,5,6 with 4,11 with 4 - $3.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 12 with 1,13 with 4 - $1.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 12 with 4,11 with 1,2,3,9,12 - $5.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 10,11 with 3,5,6 with 4,11 with 4 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 10,11 with 12 with 1,13 with 4 - $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 10,11 with 12 with 4,11 with 1,2,3,9,12 - $10.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,5,6 with 1,13 with 4 - $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 3,5,6 with 4,11 with 1,2,3,9,12 - $15.00 $0.50 Pick-4 (5,6/3/4/6,11,12,14) Paid $1,091.30
11 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 12 with 1,13 with 1,2,3,9,12 - $5.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,9,13 with 12 with 4,11 with 4 - $3.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 8,9,11 with 4,11 with 4 - $3.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 12 with 6,8,9,12 with 4 - $2.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 12 with 4,11 with 5,6 - $2.00

Total: $64.00

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

$147k double C/O at old Del Mar and this sequence may be tougher than the 2 days previous..

4th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Yikes.. Some way to start this P6. The ones that 'look best', like Yes Yes Yes, Dylan Ward and Wicked Finance, are 0/27 so far and appear well on their way to becoming career maidens. Best case scenario may be that Sadler's SCR'D #13-AE Act draws in.. J Serino, Opsec, blinkered Simon Kenton all feel possible at square prices. Note first grass Simon Kenton is a full to minor SW Clear Sailing that was 2nd twice in 2 turf starts..

Most Likely: #5 Simon Kenton 5-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Opsec 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Dylan Ward 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 J Serino 6-1 9th

5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Feels like 2-4-5-6-8 all need coverage..

Most Likely: #8 Memphis 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #2 Qatar's Pearl 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Tribal Dude 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Industry Leader 7-2 4th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

May lean heavily on the Dorf 2nd timer Miss Centerfold. If not, there's 3-4 that you'll need to consider..

Most Likely: #8 Miss Centerfold 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Longstocking SCR
Next Best: #5 Prettypreciousheir 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 American Sun 8-1 WON ($21.20)

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

At least half the field looks capable on best. Hollendorfer returnee Presenceofagenius working steady and appears tractable..

Most Likely: #9 Presenceofagenius 5-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Macho Sox 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Husband's Folly 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Island Freedom 8-1 11th

8th: 33rd Bob Hope (G3), 7f (DD)

Nice little 2yo stake. Top 2 seem a cut above while next 2 have questions to answer..

Most Likely: #6 Alright Alright 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 St. Joe Bay 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Story to Tell 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Every May 15-1 6th

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Passing Game SCR
Next Best: #4 Hadfunlastnight 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Life a Riley 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Endless Cruise 6-1 8th
Super/Hi-5: #9 Fighting On 5-1 4th

<$200 P6 Grid:

4: 3-5 (A), 6-9 (B), 1-4-10-11 (C)
5: 8 (A), 2-6 (B), 4-5 (C)
6: 8 (A), 3-5 (B), 2-4 (C)
7: 9 (A), - (B), 2-4-6-10 (C)
8: 6 (A), 9 (B), 2-5 (C)
9: 10 (A), 4-8 (B), 5-9 (C)

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 6,9 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $4.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 2,6 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 3,5 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $8.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 9 with 10 - $4.00
6 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 4,8 - $8.00

A's with Two B's

7 $2.00 pick P6: 6,9 with 2,6 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $8.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 6,9 with 8 with 3,5 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $8.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 6,9 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 9 with 10 - $4.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 6,9 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 4,8 - $8.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 2,6 with 3,5 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $16.00
12 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 2,6 with 8 with 9 with 9 with 10 - $8.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 2,6 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 4,8 - $16.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 3,5 with 9 with 9 with 10 - $8.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 3,5 with 9 with 6 with 4,8 - $16.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 9 with 4,8 - $8.00

A's with One C

17 $2.00 pick P6: 1,4,10,11 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $8.00
18 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 4,5 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $8.00
19 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 2,4 with 9 with 6 with 10 - $8.00
20 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 8 with 2,4,6,10 with 6 with 10 - $16.00
21 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 2,5 with 10 - $8.00
22 $2.00 pick P6: 3,5 with 8 with 8 with 9 with 6 with 5,9 - $8.00

Total: $192.00

<$65 P4 Grid:

6: 8 (A), 3-5 (B), 2-4-6 (C)
7: 9 (A), 4-6-10 (B), 2-12 (C)
8: 6-9 (A), 2 (B), 5 (C)
9: 4-10 (A), 5-8-9 (B), 6-7 (C)

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 8 with 9 with 6,9 with 4,10 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 9 with 6,9 with 4,10 - $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 4,6,10 with 6,9 with 4,10 - $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 9 with 2 with 4,10 - $1.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 9 with 6,9 with 5,8,9 - $3.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 4,6,10 with 6,9 with 4,10 - $12.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 9 with 2 with 4,10 - $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 9 with 6,9 with 5,8,9 - $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 4,6,10 with 2 with 4,10 - $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 4,6,10 with 6,9 with 5,8,9 - $9.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 9 with 2 with 5,8,9 - $1.50

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 2,4,6 with 9 with 6,9 with 4,10 - $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 2,12 with 6,9 with 4,10 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 9 with 5 with 4,10 - $1.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 9 with 6,9 with 6,7 - $2.00

Total: $64.50

Good luck!
Steve