Derby Trail Forums - Saratoga Friday Aug. 22

EDIT: Hoping the track stays muddy the whole card.

Race 1:
#4 Moments Notiz is SCR...
#5 Doubledown Again: Chased #4 twice earlier in the year. Hit the board all seven tries this year. Maybe Contessa can get him over the hump.

Race 2:
#6 Arctic Ocean: Three 5f works in 1:01 and change. Contessa has her fit for the upset.
#8 Know It All Anna: Drop down will help, but I’m not overly convinced.
#7 Nejma: Lost all hope at the start on debut. Nice blowout the other day and can fill up the exotics.
#3 No Shanks: Roughed at the start, but really didn’t do too much after that. I’ll side against.

Race 3:
#5 Tenango: Will relish the wet conditions. Jacobson has him working and working in prep for this.
#6 Bern Identity: Ran away in the slop off a huge layoff. Can easily repeat, but be wary of the bounce factor.
#2 Traffic Light: Extremely consistent and hard to leave out.

Race 4:
#1 Running Wild / #1A Remarkable: Experience runner will continue to improve and the FTS looks live. Jerkens on fire.
#4 Via Strata is SCR...
#5 Trautman: Love the elongated works mixed in with a few quick blowouts. Expecting a career best.
#3 Judy Legend: No excuse last time. Must hope the blinkers help.

Race 5:
#2 Qualify: Regressed on the step up but a better performance is expected.
#7 Bad Hombre: Rosario moved too early last time and Alvarado returns today---he rides him best. Proven on the wet and has a chance to upset.
#4 Cigar Street: Best on paper, but that was a long time ago. Near 17 month layoff. Never run on a wet track. Much to prove at a short price.
#3 Awesome Vision: Irad hops off to #2 as this NY-bred tries open. Let’s hope he’s right.

Race 6:
#12 Successful Brothers: Has run well on a wet main track before and Contessa can return him to his form from earlier this season.

Race 7:
#3 Paulassilverlining: Short on debut when they flew up front. Will run much better.
#11 Tippany: AE draws in with a handful of quick works. Well-meant and bred to win early.
#1 Gap Year: McLaughlin has this one flying in the mornings and will be bet after winning one on Thursday. I don’t think she’s as good though.
#8 Stormy Sky: Should take to the off going and is a use for the exotics.

Race 8:
#9 Away Game: Just won over this course and distance, and with a lack of pace in here can get a perfect trip to repeat.
Will add others in the P4, but I don’t really like any of them.

Race 9:
I really think that the Graveyard of Favorites will be open for business on Friday.
#4 Fiftyshadesofhay: On two occasions she’s shipped to NY and ran very well. Wet conditions may suit her the most.
#1 Antipathy: J/T are hot at the moment, and don’t forget she was in a photo with them two back. Another that’s proven on wet.
#5 Belle Gallantey: Completely turned it around since the claim. Does best on the pace and should get a favourable trip.
#6 Close Hatches did not seem to handle the muddy surface in a work earlier this month, and I’m not convinced she’s as effective at 9f. #7 Princess of Sylmar does not seem the same filly this year. I’ll gladly be proved wrong. Also have some stats to back up my thoughts re these two. I have to throw them on my P4 ticket, but I could just as easily leave them out.
#2 hasn’t shown anything to say she can win this…#3 is plausible but needs a huge jump figure-wise.

Race 10:
#11 Unbridled Logic: Wasn’t 100% at AQU in the winter and has previously run well on the dirt. Expecting a big one on the wet.
#8 Beamer: Ran well off the layoff and does have a win on the main-track with a third on a wet surface. A shot if he stays in, but I don't like the listed jockey changed. Nothing else really appeals.

Race 11:
#11 Giant Fox: MTO seems a standout.
#10 Jigsaw: Ghostzappers do well in the mud and willing to give him another chance on the dirt in case #11 doesn't fire.

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 1: 5
Race 2: 6, 8
Race 3: 2, 5, 6
Race 4: 1, 3, 5
Race 5: 2, 4, 7
$32.40

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 6, 8
Race 3: 2, 5, 6
Race 4: 1, 3, 5
Race 5: 2, 4, 7
$32.40...nothing extra I wanted to add in from my P5...

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 8: 4, 8, 9
Race 9: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7
Race 10: 5, 7, 8, 11
Race 11: 10, 11
$72.00

Will take a stab at the P6 but will finalize my ticket after SCRs.

Good luck!