Derby Trail Forums - 9/9: Saratoga ($88k C/O; Fourstardave)

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Silver Union 3-1 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #2 Island Candy 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Wraith 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Quick as a Bunny 6-1 4th

2nd: MCLM/$35k, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Curious group.. SCR of Ireland's Eye takes a lot of appeal out..

Most Likely: #7 Madd Exchange 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #3 Nicholson 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Star Academy 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Eight Cents 12-1 3rd

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 March Reward 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Storm 8-5 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Adirondack Dancer 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Iron Power 5-1 2nd

4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Requite 8-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #2 Two Weeks Off 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Call Daddy 8-1 8th
Super Add: #1a Proven Commodity 10-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dr Disco 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Meet the Mets 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Star of New York 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Glory Game 12-1 8th

P5 Grid:

1: 7 (A), 2-4 (B), 5-6 (C)
2: 7 (A), 2-3 (B), 6 (C)
3: 4-5 (A), 3 (B), 8-9 (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 3 (B), 2-6-7 (C)

Main (A/B's): $81

$0.50 Pick 5 (1,7/5,7,8/5,6,7/3/7) Paid $721.75

P4 Grid:

2: 7 (A), 2-3 (B), 6-8 (C)
3: 4-5 (A), 3 (B), 1-8-9 (C)
4: 2-3 (A), 6 (B), 1-8 (C)
5: 1 (A), 3-4-8 (B), 2-5-6-7 (C)

Main (A/B's): $54

$0.50 Pick 4 (5,7,8/5,6,7/3/7) Paid $103.25

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$88k C/O starts here..

Best Value: #3 Dubai Sky 8-1: Extra time for bow since gate flip.. 3rd
Next Best: #10 Royal Squeeze 4-1: From highly productive dam.. 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Designed for War 7-2: Solid if unspectacular in morning.. WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #9 King of New York 12-1 2nd

7th: NY-ALW, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Groupthink failed as fave here opening weekend but impressed enough in downstate to bullet for return engagement..

Most Likely: #4 Groupthink 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Gran the Man 5-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Native Hero 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Station Chief 5-1 3rd

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Point Roll SCR'D horse to beat with anything close to MDN-breaker, but Last Run (15-1) a full to $350k Empire earner Vicki's Dancer and has turf try benchmark to run back to. Gets Napravnik who should his style. Saez lost ground all the way on Birchwood Road (20-1) in grey's first run from Wilson barn. Easrns 2nd try at bonus mutuel. Archer Hill and The Spotted Wonder .

Best Value: #7 Last Run 15-1 DNF-Eased
Next Best: #4 Archer Hill 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Birchwood Road 20-1 6th
Super Add: ##6 Woke Up in Malibu 7-2 2nd

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Got lucky Friday scooping turf sprint 8th, but contenders here more obvious and shorter priced. Pace looks lively with 1-4-7-9-11 all knowing but one way to go. Someone in the lead group likely stays on (Rivelli fave?) while stalker-closers swamp..

Most Likely: #10 Ballerina Belle 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Mizzen Moon 12-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Orient Harbor 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Kiss Me Lola 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Richies Sweetheart 5-2 WON ($4.90)

10th: 30th Fourstardave (G2), 3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Just a six pack but Key here is how quickly and vociferously Silver Max and Sayaad engage up front..

Most Likely: #3 Jack Milton 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Grand Arch 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Silver Max 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Seek Again 3-1 WON ($6.70)

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #7 Trophee 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Forensic 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Coronette 5-1 5th
Exotics Use:: #2 See Ya Signe 15-1 10th

P6 Grid:

6: 3-10 (A), 7 (B), 9 (C)
7: 4 (A), 7 (B), 5-6 (C)
8: 1 (A), 4-7 (B), 5-6-8 (C)
9: 10-12 (A), 2-6 (B), 1 (C)
10: 3 (A), - (B), 1-2-6 (C)
11: 7 (A), 6 (B), 3 (C)

Main (A/B's): $144

P4 Grid:

8: 4-7 (A), 6-8 (B), 2-5 (C)
9: 6-10-12 (A), - (B), 1-2-7-8 (C)
10: 3 (A), 1-2-6 (B), 3-5 (C)
11: 7 (A), 3-6 (B), 2 (C)

Main (A/B's): $72

Good luck!
Steve