Incorrect
 

I think this last race that Lava Man won has reinforced a false idea that I keep reading.This idea that "Lava Man needs the lead" is simply incorrect.I don't care which horse you like of those 2 main contenders,but atleast don't have the false assumption that Lava Man has to go for the lead right out of the gate.The connections decided to get him up close on Saturday,because they were concerned about carrying 126(versus the 115-118 for the competition.) I'd say Lava Man can be placed just about anywhere Corey chooses to put him(in the top 3rd of the pack.)He has been laying just off the pace in most of the races this year.

Scuds,
If you look at the potential field for the Classic- unless Lawyer Ron and Ball 4 run, is there much pace pressure? If Lava Man can get loose on the lead, even at a mile and a 1/4, I think that's the best strateeegery for winning. With that being said, I don't think Lava Man can carry that pace for that long a distance (he's not Ghostzapper lol). But if Ball 4 and Lawyer Ron show up, then maybe Lava Man can stalk and have first run at the leaders. So I'm assuming it's a wait-and-see appoach depeneding on who else enters.

Believe it or not,they are probably going to enter Brother Derek in there.He should keep the pace from being pedestrian.Lava is probably best laying just off a moderate pace.Corey won't blow the ride.He has ridden this horse as if he is a car.Horse really settles for him(seemingly wherever he wants to place him.)He has placed him perfectly in a slow paced race(Pacific Classic,) a fast paced race(Sunshine Millions,)and a moderately paced race(the one he just led start to finish.) I just hope they both run their race.Bernadini should come cruising up,and Corey will then let Lava go,and these 2 should knife fight the whole stretch.Bernadini probably can eventually get by,but I think he needs a good trip.Any mistakes,trouble etc.,and I think Lava gets it.

Brother Derek's good effort was lost in the Lava Man shuffle. making only his 2nd start since the Preakness he ran quite well and bravely to hold the place down. His layoff start at Del Mar certainly couldn't have moved him up very muchin terms of conditioning and the race he ran on Saturday was almost like first start off the layoff. Perhaps holding the place over Giacomo isn't earth shattering stuff but to me he had to chase while losing ground and most horses would have spit the bit after Lava broke their hearts on the turn and pulled away. He kept battling and looked good. He may not be Classic contender material but the Classic could really move him up in terms of fitness and he should be a VERY nice 4YO and be a big contender in the Strub series that starts with the Malibu on opening day at Santa Anita.

He hasn't run a bad one yet at Anita.He worked like a monster last Winter at Anita.He worked great at Anita before this race.It would appear to me that he is happiest at this track.I wish they would put their egos away,and race him at Anita this Winter/Spring.He will try hard back in Kentucky,but it does appear he has a preference for Anita(and would probably have much less chance of injuring himself out here.) To me,he is best at 9f or less anyways.So,wrong distance,wrong surface,and wrong company.I hope they reconsider.Atleast Giacomo likes Churchill,and can handle 10f very easily.He has shown that he will come eat it,if they cook it.

I think I read where Lava Man finished 13 and change, Thats not a winning finish butdoes anyone run the turns better than Lava Man. The finish is all anyone talks about but Lava Man puts them away in the turn then last . Is not the conventional way but it looks to me this is his style. It might be a west coast thing and will be a flop but this style could spur some of the finishers to prematurely start there run.

Agreed. He was always iffy going into the Derby - sire looked OKay, but damside suspect. Wrote so at the time (in Owner/Breeder). He would do better in the Clark H, or waiting for the Native Diver.