Derby Trail Forums - Saratoga Sunday Aug. 3rd Analysis

EDIT: Scratches ravaged my 'A' crop and had to redo wagers.

Haven't played on much over the past two weeks, and after doubling up my play on the P4 on Saturday I've got a bit of a bankroll ready to drop closer to $0 after Sunday!

Race 3:
#2 Stormy Henry was a money burner for Trombetta, but Maker will have him ready and he can bottom out this field.
Terranova doesn’t have a great record with FTS, especially at the Spa, but he has #1 Sherifco working quick and often and he will be a good price in this weak field.
Interesting to see Rosario hop aboard #3 Quiet Ruler. He worked just as quick before his debut, but should come on from that and improve here.
Pletcher is 0-16 with 3yo FTS at SAR, and has a less than stellar record with these types on the NYRA circuit as a whole. Albertrani was 0-41 with 3yos in MSW class until Saturday when he won, so I’ll take him on here.

$0.60 Tri: 1,2/1,2,3,4/ALL $14.40

Race 4:
#9 Front is 3-4 at the distance, and his past runs at SAR are better than they appear. Jerkens putting him to work in the mornings, and he’ll be value here. Was a Vet SCR 3 weeks ago which is a concern and why I won't be keying him.
#7 Kharafa is beatable at 8f but still very dangerous.

Race 5:
#6 Take the Zeppole adds the blinkers on and, under the assumption he has been wearing them, has been flying in the mornings. May be ready to blow up the toteboard.
#9 Miss Silver Birch gets a positive jockey change and has been competitive in this class. DiSanto's got two and I like 'em both.
Be wary of #1 Signora Sofia here. He hasn’t been far off this type in the past, and this is where Sciacca can cause a shock.
Servis is dangerous 2nd time out and #3 South Sound is the one to beat, but I’m skeptical for two reasons. One, she’s already in for half the price she was taken for, and she drops again off a brief layoff off of a good performance. Connections may just be trying to win one, but it’s sketchy.
#11 With Delite can be ready for Jacobson. Extremely wide open event here.

$0.60 Tri: 6,9/1,3,6,9,11/1,3,5,6,7,9,11 $24

Race 6:
#5 Dream Man doesn’t have a great winning record, but is always there at the finish. Too far back in a slow pace last time and a repeat of two back puts him in a great spot.
#1 Mop Head got clear running too late last time, but with that said didn’t really have an explosive kick. Mile will suit better, however, and Cannizzo has done great to start the meet.
#9 Beamer had no business on the jumps last year, and has been working steadily for this where I think he can run a big one at boxcar odds.
Pletcher has is 0-14 with 1st time tag horses at SAR and also has poor (for his standards) record with type of claiming tag overall at the Spa. I’ll play against #8 Shining Copper. #10 Make It Gold has won both his races wire to wire, and I’m not sure if he’ll get the lead here.

$0.60 Tri: 1,5,9/1,5,9/1,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11 $25.20

Race 7:
#7 Mercer Mill Mae drops in for a tag off of five morning works while meeting her own gender for the first time. Is by far the best on paper, and I really want to single her, but Ward struggles with 2yos at the Spa and that is concerning. Putting her in the P4 but not the P6.
#4 Ex Wives has a string of good works and is bred to win early. I think she’ll be overlooked at a good price.
I’m not a fan of Rodriguez 1sters, but #6 Condo Command has a good bottom of the pedigree in addition to being by the fantastic debut sire Tiz Wonderful.

Race 8:
#10 Cage Fighter hung off a huge move, but Siete C is a decent horse in his own right. Maker off to a good start and that should continue here.
#8 Cheyenne Nation couldn’t close into a slow pace and drops back in for a tag. Rosario lands the mount and he will be tough to beat if #10 doesn’t fire.
I don’t think #6 Nubin Ridge was fully cranked for his run two weeks ago and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him run like he did two back.

Race 9:
I think Sheppard holds the cards here, and I’m leaning towards his bigger priced runner in #3 Angel Terrace. Tough trip in this event last year but it was still a huge performance. Clearly wasn’t right on his return in Lexington and the last was obviously a prep. Very dangerous at a price.
#13 Cat’s Claw is a young improver who has burst away from them in her last two when getting more distance. A repeat of either of those two performances puts the target on her back.
I understand that it is the running style of #4 Angegreen to make one run from the back of the pack, but she had no chance from that position at Delaware. She has a much better post to contend with so hopefully she gets a better spot, but even if she at the back she will have a much stronger pace scenario to set it up. Hasn’t yet run back to her Italian Oaks 2nd, but that at least shows that there’s something in her.
#12 Gulsary is bred to stay the trip and Proctor normally puts them in good spots.
#6 Levanto wasn’t fully cranked for her stateside debut, and letting Clement go at a big price is usually not a good tactic.
#14 Cushion is one that I’m on the fence. Has much more to offer off a good Stateside debut win. Although being by Galileo and with the menacing Clement-Rosario combo, her superstar dam was a miler and her three other winners never won past a miler which makes staying an American 12f a bit of a concern. Might be able to hang on for a share as she did at Newbury.

$0.60 Tri: 3,13/3,4,12,13/2,3,4,6,7,8,10,12,13,14 $28.80

Race 10:
After being a beaten favourite twice, #4 Stormkeeper steps up to a more suitable distance and should get a great trip.
#7 Costenia is second time Pletcher and is back to the surface where she belongs. Expecting a better performance on the drop down.
#1 Little Miss Brown couldn’t get things done on two occasions at Delaware, albeit against tougher, and she could sneak away with a cozy lead.
#5 Rachel’s Temper may need one off the break, but she can sneak into the minor placings and I’ll also toss her into my P4.
#2 Shaikha just doesn’t seem to know how to win but she can’t be ignored from the exotics.

$0.60 Pick Four
Race 7: 4, 6, 7
Race 8: 6, 8, 10
Race 9: 3, 4, 6, 12, 13
Race 10: 1, 4, 5, 7
$108

$2 Pick Six
6,9/5/4, 6/10/3, 13/4, 7
$32

$1 Rolling Pick Threes
Race 3: 1, 2/7, 9/1, 3, 6, 9, 11 = $20
Race 4: 7, 9/1, 3, 6, 9, 11/1, 5, 9, 13 = $40
Race 5: 1, 3, 6, 9, 11/1, 5, 9, 13/4, 6, 7 = $60

Good luck!