Derby Trail Forums - 8/1: Saratoga ($32k C/O)

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

This is some kind of hodge podge of middling horseflesh. Half switch turf to dirt (2-3-7-8) and 2 stretch out (4-5). Jacob's Here drops from open MSW to state-bred MCLM. Hmm..

Best Value: #5 Pepi's Find 10-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Jacob's Here 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 No Nukes 2-1 4th
Super Add: #7 The Mooche 6-1 8th

2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Point to the Wild 1-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Ave's Halo 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #8 Insolvent 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 My Bella Beauty 5-1 2nd

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Terrific lineup of 3yo maiden fillies that have plenty of upside yet. Rachel Alexandra full sister Samantha Nicole makes 2nd start and figures to appreciate the trip. And you can be sure that KMc -- already strong with this kind of layoff -- wants to impress new client Stonestreet. Motion's Luna Time (10-1) has plenty of pedigree power for today's stretchout as the Malibu Moon chestnut is out of High Yield mare High Moment who won the Dr. Penny (8.5f-T) for Rodney Jenkins. High Moment is a half to Jimmy Toner's Sir Whimsey who won the GP Handicap (9.5f)..

Most Likely: #4 Samantha Nicole 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Luna Time 10-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #6 Cali Star 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Dragonberry 5-1 2nd

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Odd cast lacking clear pacesetter. North Slope working lights out for return. St. Moose offers price punch and might find himself on easy lead. Should be an easy day for speed figure makers given 3 races at 9f in the first 4 of the day!

Most Likely: #2 North Slope 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 St. Moose 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 All Tied Up 5-2 4th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$32k P6 C/O starts here..

Lots of class droppers involved to make start of C/O sextet plenty treacherous. 1-2-3-5-7-10-11 all possible..

Most Likely: #7 Herd Mentality 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Solly's Mischief 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Brendan G SCR
Exotics Use: #1 You You 4-1 WON ($9.10)

P5/P4 Grid:

1: 5-6 (A), 1-4-7 (B), 2-3-8 (C)
2: 3 (A), -- (B), 6-7-8 (C)
3: 1-4 (A), 3-6 (B), 7 (C)
4: 2 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-3-4 (C)
5: 7-10 (A), 11 (B), 1-2-4-5 (C)

6th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Daddy Loves Gold 7-2 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #7 How 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Once a Week SCR
Exotics Use: #4 My Place 7-2 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Shore Runner 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #12 Pirate's Pleasure 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Soul House SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Let's Go Ben 10-1 3rd

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Wow. Pick and pray. There is no combination of 4 horses that cannot comprise the super..

Most Likely: #6 Aripeka 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Call Wil 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Smokey Brown 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Pep the Champ 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Arch Avenger 6-1 WON ($12.00)

9th: 3rd Caress, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Munnings Sister tries to take her strong sprint game to the lawn. Has been working on the turf and merits big shot if she takes to it, but there's not a lot of support for her family-wise as a grass runner. I'll try to play against in-race but use liberally in multis..

Best Value: #6 Jewel of a Cat 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Free as a Bird 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Madame Giry 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Believe in Charlie 6-1 8th

10th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Certainly feels as if there will be horses in here that would trip a double carry. Impossible end to potentially explosive sequences..

Most Likely: #6 Romans Paradise 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 All My Trails SCR
Best Value: #12 Perfect Stormy 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Mote 12-1 7th
Super Add: #3 All Cash 4-1 WON ($7.80)

P6/P4 Grid:

5: 7-10 (A), 11 (B), 1-4 (C)
6: 2-7 (A), -- (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 8 (A), -- (B), 7-5-12 (C)
8: 6 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-8-11 (C)
9: 6 (A), 3-5-10 (B), 1 (C)
10: 6-9 (A), 12 (B), 2-3-7-8 (C)

Good luck!
Steve