Derby Trail Forums - 7/31: Saratoga (Paddy Smithwick; Evan Shipman)

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

ALL RACES OFF THE TURF AFTER HEAVY T-STORMS

1st: 18th A. P. Smithwick Mem. Chase (NSA-G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Hard to believe that 11yo Divine Fortune, who won this in '10-'11 and was 3rd last year, is the key component of the 3-pronged Sheppard entry. All Together rarely misfires. Demonstrative is off form but has excelled over this course historically..

Most Likely: #1e Sheppard entry 6-5 6th/9th/10th
Best Value: #3 All Together 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Staying On 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Demonstrative 8-1 2nd

2nd: MSW, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Warrior's Hero 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Rare Eagle 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 None Like Nolan 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #1 Updraft 3-1 6th

3rd: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

4th: CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Big Town 9-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Crushing SCR
Exotics Use: #4 North Ocean 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Herbal Prospector 12-1 WON ($)

5th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Bullheaded Boy 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #7 Saratoga Heater 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Persuasive Devil 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Watergate 6-1 3rd

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

9th: 31st Evan Shipman-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Fun matchup between Escapefromreality and Big Business who must avoid a duel. Beautyinthepulpit could scoop it up if the top pair spar spiritedly..

Most Likely: #6 Escapefromreality 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Big Business 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Beautyinthepulpit 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Awesome Vision 4-1 4th

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Good luck!
Steve