Chrome Hedge
 

So I get a call from a panicked acquaintance who I see once a year at Fantasy Football Draft. Seems before the Preakness he bet someone that California Chrome would not win the Triple Crown. He gets 300 bucks if he doesn't and is out to lose 800 if he does. He basically told me he is looking to spend a Grand to hedge. He thought he could hedge in the place and show pools. I told him he was nuts. I told him to suck it up because many horses win the first 2 legs , this is where the heavy lifting starts. Does anyone see a playable hedge here, I certainly do not.. LOL

So he wants to hedge on a -267 wager? Sounds like a smart guy.

Just theoretically if I were going to do something that dumb, I'd play a Pick 4 with Chrome singled and hope to get bombs in the first three legs.

I was thinking big doubles into Chrome but what gets me is how someone completely loses their nerve after the far easier of the two events goes against him... Wonder how he is going to feel if he wins his bet but loses money on the hedges :zz:

Win bets on the mostly likely one or two upsetters?

Stupid as hell, I know.

Sounds like the best hedge that acquaintenance can make is to vow to never make another wager......on anything....ever.

why would someone spend a grand to hedge a max potential 800 loss vs 300 gain?

I say ride it out

To me, the only possible scenario is to bet $300 to win on CC....still not a good bet, but only thing possible to me

if he wins he gets back about $260-$340 from the $800 he loses

If CC loses, he breaks even

He gave the guy 8/3 to win the TC after one leg. That is fairly reasonable odds, essentially 3/5*3/5. There isn't a great option to hedge, the place pool for 400, maybe, and hope he pays 3.00 in the middle? Hope he runs 2nd and win both bets, if he wins Hes out $600 if he runs off the board he loses $100. Best choice here is to ride it out.

Considering the race shape and race record of the remainder of the field Samraat by far offers the best value he will find to key underneath.$40 bucks should get him at least $840 in the exacta.
I would key him third in the tri for another $40 proportionately to the remaining horses odds. If they go nuts on the front end he has a good chance to cash his original wager, if they dont he'll have a horse with the second best record in the field hanging around for a piece.

Not that I disagree with your thought process about the actual race, but that isn't a real hedge.

I cant see any way to hedge a 3/5 shot, as you and others have stated already. My thought is to minimize any further investment (10% of the original risk) by grasping on to the best value possible and cold tap it.

At the very least there is an interactive relationship (so to speak) between CC and Samraat, who, unless I'm wrong will be the closest pursuer/pacesetter to the favorite. I would hate to depend on a horse like Commanding Curve to pass everyone into the exacta and have to spend 2-3 times more to cover.

So what would be a "real hedge" that would be a reasonable risk/reward ?

Agreed on your points.

There really isn't a "real hedge" thatis a reasonable risk/reward. Such is the life when you're booking 3/5 shots!