Derby Trail Forums - Nate Silver's 538: Crown slump more 'slumpier' than you think

For the statistics analyst in you.. Ben Morris' take on the Triple Crown slump.

The Triple Crown Slump Is Even Slumpier Than You Think
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/t...han-you-think/

The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown. With a historical success rate of 33 percent, the current 12-race slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 – nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.