Jcgc
 

Ok, after getting myself over the fact that the JCGC had only 4 horses and was unbettable I looked at it firmly last night because it ends the pick-6 with the carryover.
I'm not so sure that Dylan Thomas doesn't have some degree of a chance here. Granted its not a big chance, but i will say hes the only one who can beat Bern.
Wanderin Boy is a nice horse, and he will make the lead no doubt, but at some point Bernadini will engage him and they will hook up or Bern will go by.
Andromeda simply comes from too far out if it and I can't see him winning.
But Dylan is interesting. I was aware of who he was and what he was doing but the more I hear from teh usually reserved O'Brien the less I think he was sent here only to try and beat the archrival Sheikh's horse and moreso because they honestly think he can succeed on dirt. I know its a semantical difference but I still think its relevant.
He adds lasix, and being a grand son of Danzig gives him some hope of accepting the dirt. He also adds Johnny V. Hes won the Irish Derby and The Irish Champion Stakes and was beaten only a head in the Epsom Derby. Hes not just some bum that someone invented to try and come over.
I think hes worth covering on a saver ticket in the pik-3 and pik-4 and pik-6 if you can afford it.
I'd still like to see Bernadini get looked in the eye, just once.

Good luck today Oracle. There are lots of other races at Bel, Keeneland and SA, so I am not all that bummed out over the JCGC having only 4 horses. No need to play every race anyways. Its still a nice card.

You worried the tiniest bit about the Yankees?

Stick to something you know about. Dylan Thomas is not bred to run well on the dirt. Bernardini wins by 8-10 once again. Of course, you are doing your usual going out on a limb to make yourself look smart if Dylan Thomas wins, but if he loses you will tell us you knew Bernardini would win. Your act has gotten pretty transparent. Go ahead and waste your money adding Dylan Thomas to your ticket. Dylan is using this as a prep. He isn't even totally tightened for this one.

Bernardini isn't a paper tiger like the NY Yankees. He is the real deal.

Not really Tim. I think they win tonight and shell the Tigers pitcher and take it home for game five with Wang.

Transparent? Now that is hysterical coming from a shill like you.
What happened to the Showing Up is the best grass horse threads that you and your coward buddies treated us to for months. One loss and you blow town.

Nothing transparent here at all.
I said I'm adding Dylan as a COVER bet on pik's. I still expect that bern will win, lets say I've got it 90-10 % chance. But the amount of money that will be bet keying Bern as a single will be astronomical. Its prudent to take one cover bet stab with another horse in there because in the case of a Bern loss the payouts will just be incredible.
I don't think I'm speaking anything but logic and common sense, which is why you don't grasp it.

An Albertrani win and a Yankee loss. Tough day coming for you.

Good luck betting $1000 into the pick 6 to win $500. Adding Dylan Thomas is like throwing money away. Bet with reason, not with dislike of a trainer.

Showing Up will run second to George Washington and give me a nice exacta in the BC Mile.

It is not prudent to bet DT. There is nothing to indicate he will even beat Wanderin Boy. NYRA screwed this up by keeping the JCGC as the final leg. They should have started earlier and thrown out the JCGC. The pick 6 will pay under $1000.

I don't care what the guy whose about 11% this meet and was lower in perecentage the last meet at the Spa does. yeah I've been tossing him and its working out great quite frankly. The 5-6 winners hes had in the last 3 months have all been heavily favored. Bern accounted fortwo of them at 1-2 or less, and he had a maiden win at 1-2 as well. Boy thats a hell of an ROI in the last three months huh? Hes been ice cold for three months and if you had a brain you'd be tossing him as well.
I don't dislike him, and I think he actually desreves more credit for his job with Bern than he gets from people. He doesn't get in his way, and many trainers would. He realizes he has a superior animal and trains him that way. You don't see him speed drilling the horse in bullet times, or working him in company. He keeps him on a 5 furlong maintenance drill program that keeps him sharp and fit enough to keep an edge, yet doesn't send him over the top.
That may not sound like the high praise I'm giving him, but it is high praise.
Lots of trainers have had very talented animals and ruined them with speed drills and overwork that melts them or causes an injury. Quite frankly despite this horses talent, had he not had a Albertrani training him who knows if he would ever been this good, or kept as sharp as he has. I really admire what hes done with this horse and he desrves a lot of credit, more than he gets from the press as if he is just a footnote in the story.
But its my theory that perhaps the pressure and daily obsession with a once in a lifetime horse has hurt the performance of his other horses.
He won 3 races at the spa, two with Bern and had a miserable ROI and win rate. In July at Belmont he was icy as well. Now at this meet hes floating at about 10% with two wins and one of them a 1-2 shot. If you've bet this guy and keyed him the last three months you have about 6 wins total and 3 of em are 1-2 shots.
I think its prudent to keep tossing out his non Bern horses and I have the proof, perecentages, and ROI on him the last three months as FACTS that you cannot disprove, not opinions. Unless you like 9-10% trainers over a three month span who constantly get bet down with short priced horses and who have three of 6 wins with 1-2 shots. So whose the dummy, me or you?:)

Trains the best horse in the world, maybe the best since Cigar. Was the assitant trainer to the last great horse too. He doesn't cheat. That is why he has a tough time in NY. Once NYRA is gone and legit people take over the drug tests, things will change in NY. The samples are going to have to start coming from the horses that actually ran, not the others in the barn.

Oh I see, ok. That great, so now you allege that NYRA employees are faking samples in the drug testing.

dylan has more than just danzig as a dirt influence...of course he doesn't know that. whether he takes to dirt or not---guess we'll know later.
but i really don't want an import winning.
order of finish:
bern
wanderin
dylan
andromeda

whooopie. what a field. :rolleyes:

I didn't say that. I am very careful about the words I use. I never use words that would bring a lawsuit. I know what to say. Calling someone a liar is not going to bring a lawsuit. That is a matter of opinion. Saying that they are faking samples would be a problem. Insinuating that it might be happening is just an opinion. I know how to post without getting others in trouble.

That said, I will no longer comment on NYRA. It is pointless. They will get the bid or they won't.

if you didn't go about flinging mud hoping some would stick, you wouldn't have to measure your words.

I would like to see Bernardini get a test as much as the next guy who is not star struck, but from my memory O'brien hasn't had much luck bringing these turf to dirts, Johannesburg is about the only one I can think of doing this for himk...

Its all he has to do. He doesn't know anything, so why not just fling mud.

i'd like to see him tested. he hasn't been since his debut. and who saw that?!
he won't be tested today i feel. how could he be with only three horses, one being the hapless andromeda. now watch that one come up and win big!! yeah, right!!

I wonder if this is possible, imo Bernardini rolls today, not exactly groundbreaking stuff, but we hear how horses are creatures of habit, he's going to get a test in the BC...What's going to happen when he gets hooked more than once, will he toss it or go on, he may be the best horse, but from an experience and fitness level he may have that going against him in the BC...

i don't think he'll win the bcc.

Personally, I am hoping for a Tom Albertrani win and a Joe Torre win, too.:D