10/31: Santa Anita ($440k DBL C/O)
 

Breeders' Cup Weekend off to a rousing start Thursday with $440k double carryover to whet appetites. Hard not to get involved with solid sequence -- albeit with a weak finale -- that will top $2,500,000..


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$440k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Square Dancer 3-1 (A) DNF-Dropped rider
Next Best: #1 Sinfully 3-1 (B) WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #4 Persuasive Paul 5-1 (C) 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Under Review 5-2 (C) 4th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Pressure building on money-burning Kristo who was supposed to have won already. Hold Everything had bad luck to debut in same race as stablemate Tap It Rich..

Most Likely: #2 Hold Everything 5-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #4 Kristo 1-1 (B) WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Juliet's Tizzy 8-1 (X) 6th


5th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3)

Favorites stand out here with Barry Abrams daring anyone to take Hotradamus. Carbonite certainly eligible on his good races but Luis Saez makes downhill course debut here. Mr. Bossy Pants is a trouper. Romeo Royale is marginally interesting but Felipe Martinez comes in 0/43..

Most Likely: #4 Hotradamus 2-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #10 Mr. Bossy Pants 5-2 (A) 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Carbonite 5-2 (B) 7th
Best Value: #7 Romeo Royale 15-1 (C) 6th
Super Add: #8 Koast 5-1 (C) WON ($8.40)


6th: 2nd Big Bear, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

As mentioned on ATR, Leonard Powell -- who sends Aotearao in Friday BC Juvy Filly Turf -- has a key horse here in Soi Phet who has steadily improved since being swiped for just $16k in May. Owns pace edge and is a single consider for small tickets..

Most Likely: #5 Soi Phet 5-2 (A) 4th
Next Best: #3 Rousing Sermon 2-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Drill 5-1 (C) 3rd


7th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Singling Chimi Dee here sporting everything you like coming down the hill as she cut back from a mile from perfect post. Faced open company and fared OK two back and owns placement on the course from earlier this year..

Most Likely: #7 CHIMI DEE 7-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #2 Cotton's Point 9-2 (B) 9th
Best Value: #10 Lucky Vic 8-1 (C) 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Oscillator 9-2 (C) 2nd


8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Weak finale to sequence..

Most Likely: #9 Sophie's Secret 9-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #5 Glad's Gals 9-2 (A) 8th
Best Value: #12 Bright Town 8-1 (B) WON ($18.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Frannie'sspirittoo 6-1 (C) 7th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Speedy Vixen 10-1 (C) 5th


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1-6
4: 2-4
5: 3-4-10
6: 1-3-5
7: 7
8: 5-9

2x2x3x3x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 3-4-7-8-10
6: 1-3-5
7: 2-7
8: 5-9-12

5x3x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45


Good luck!
Steve

Steve, great work as always in preparation for the Breeders' Cup. I'll also take a shot at the lucrative PK6 carryover.

SA R3 PK6 - 1 2 3 6 8 / 2 / 3 4 / 1 3 4 / 5 / 7 = $60

Thanks Steve for all your endless tiring work!!
Any reason you left out #11 in the finale?
Am planning to single her due to lack of funds 4 6 / 4 6 / 1 4 / 3 / 4 9 / 11.

rook..

One of those 'prefer others more' scenarios. She's surely capable in a bad race..

G/L!

Thanks for the school of thought.

I constantly have to remind myself that I haven't learned.

Not at all. Always bet horses that stand out to you.. You'll be right plenty. It's a squirrely race with a lot of murky horses. Don't know if you heard Brad Free with me this morning going over the sequence but he was as confounded by that group too.

Rosario dropped on the backstretch by Square Dancer in the SA 3rd... Got up quickly though according to Steve Anderson.

Kudos to Brad Free for authoritatively delineating on ATR that today was graduation day for Kristos in SA 4, adding that he was safe single..

Long-winless Majestic City stuns in the little SA stake as speed carries to the wire. Dagger for tons of plays.

p6 Will Pays:

1-3-6: $727,697.20

2: $294,019.00

4: $146,270.80

5: $73,135.40

7: $163,527.40

8-12: $244,604.00

9: $504,46.80

10: $485,131.40

11: $112,385.60

13: $1,455,394.60 :$:

14: $368,454.20

Looks like 5 winners..

Steve, Im not doing any real betting until Saturday, but from looking through charts it looks like a speed bias is happening out there? True? Race 2 winner and the stakes winner seemed hard to have from a quick look