Derby Trail Forums - 10/25: Belmont Park ($41k C/O)

Getting a little maddening skirting carryover tries lately with a number of sequences proving just out reach due to budget constraint or anguished ticket building decisions. The 6 winners in Wednesday's Belmont skein were all slated in the tabs and after catching the first half of the sextet, I thought there was a real chance to collect some balloons on the $96 play. Alas, three straight 3rd choices hit the wire first in the second half and I had to settle for the nice $350 triple in the 8th through the runner-up effort of Hennig's Trusted Choice. Meanwhile, the C/O returned a very generous $9,550 and felt like another in a series of hittable opps that have slipped by these last 3 months. Wasn't planning on playing Friday as I prepare to leave for California, but the $41k carry at Belmont proved irresistible! There's a $47k C/O to consider at Santa Anita later too...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Well-matched group with plenty of pace signed on, a scenario made potentially more difficult if jocks snatch and grab.

Most Likely: #2 Ephyra 3-1 (A) 5th
Best Value: #6 Bricks and Clicks 10-1 (B) WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #5 Chickwalkintoabar 6-1 (C) 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Lemon Song 5-1 (C) 2nd

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Fantastic Eyes 7-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #1e Jacobson entry 3-1 (A) WON ($6.40)/5th
Best Value: #7 John's Mariah 10-1 (B) 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Belle of the West 5-1 (C) 2nd

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hot Splash 5-2 (A) WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 Mess in a Dress 8-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #1 Lily Lynn 2-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 My Unbridled Storm 4-1 (C) 6th

8th: Belle Cherie, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Wedding Toast 3-5 (A) WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #1 Ol Donyo 8-1 (B) 4th
Next Best: #6 Flash Forward 5-1 (C) 3rd

9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Schettino re-claimed Mia Poppy at first opportunity and gelding may get loose up front if Rosario doesn't challenge from outside on Breathaway..

Most Likely: #8 Powerful Instinct 5-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #2 Iron Power 3-1 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Mia Poppy 10-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #10 Breathaway 10-1 (C) 10th

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Insane nightcap with a cast of older fillies and mares that still have upside despite diploma search at this late date. Note Mrs. Weber's Gold Empire SCR'D -- out of G1 Gazelle winner In the Gold -- is a 4yo facing 3yo's..

Most Likely: #5 The Blonde Peque 7-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #2 Wundahowigothere 12-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #6 Giant's Jewel 8-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Lemon Lashes 15-1 (C) WON ($32.00)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-6
6: 1-3-7
7: 4-5
8: 5
9: 2-8
10: 2-5-6

2x3x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5
8: 1-5
9: 2-8
10: 2-3-4-5-6-7-9-13

3x2x2x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve