BC '13 NOTEBOOK: Classic; Distaff
 

SAT 12th (5:35) Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $5,000,000

1 1 Last Gunfighter Castellano J J Brown Chad C 126 L 20-1
2 2 Paynter Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 L 12-1
3 3 Planteur (IRE) Moore R L Botti Marco 126 FTL 20-1
4 4 Moreno Talamo J Guillot Eric 122 L 15-1
5 5 Declaration of War O'Brien J P O'Brien Aidan P 126 FTL 10-1
6 6 Mucho Macho Man Stevens G L Ritvo Kathy 126 L 5-1
7 7 Fort Larned Hernandez B J Jr Wilkes Ian R 126 L 6-1
8 8 Palace Malice Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 L 10-1
9 9 Game On Dude Smith M E Baffert Bob 126 L 8-5
10 10 Will Take Charge Saez L Lukas D Wayne 122 L 12-1
11 11 Ron the Greek Lezcano J Mott William I 126 L 8-1
12 12 Flat Out Rosario J Mott William I 126 L 12-1

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Super High Five



FRI 10th (4:35) Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Street Girl Castillo A Azpurua Manuel J 121 L 30-1
2 2 Authenticity Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 124 L 8-1
3 3 Close Hatches Rosario J Mott William I 121 L 6-1
4 4 Royal Delta Smith M E Mott William I 124 8-5
5 5 Beholder Stevens G L Mandella Richard 121 L 5-2
6 6 Princess of Sylmar Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 121 L 9-5

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Special Daily Double

God I love the breeders cup...every one of these has a shot

Wittgenstein has a shot--really?

Paul

i like flat out, but i don't think i'd bet him in this race.

A lot of speed in the Distaff.

Remember when Royal Delta had a mid-pack to stretch-running style back in her days for Lezcano?

Her best chance will be if she's able to revert back to that.

has she passed a horse in the stretch the last two years?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K68fr0Ke_so

And the only reason she was so close to the early pace this race, was because it was a brutally slow pace.

I don't believe they are confident she can pass horses, else I highly doubt they would have sent her after On Fire Baby as aggressively as they did in the Personal Ensign. I would guess that, in retrospect, they wish they had sent her harder in the Beldame. She may be braver at a higher cruising speed.

As you know, she stumbled at the start in the Beldame, and a horse to her inside received an overly aggressive ride to take the good rail away.

Just because a more aggressive ride would have been beneficial last time, shouldn't matter in regard to next time.

There are generally no guarantees when you try to change the running styles of horses, but she's a horse who always had a mid-pack type of running style until Mike Smith started to impose his will on her.

Based on the horses Kasept listed, I think they have to back off the pace and take first-run on Princess of Sylmar.

You didn't listen to a word I said.

She also didn't stumble at the start of the Beldame.

Obviously I went back and watched the head-on a few times before correcting you. She bobbled a bit, but she didn't stumble.

It's also irrelevant to what I said...and you then ignored.

I wouldn't disagree with your assertion that she would be better off being less aggressive in this BC, assuming she could still run effectively that way, I'm just not sure she can do that, and I think her connections, and not just her rider, may feel similarly.

I may end up being very wrong, but I think she is extremely vulnerable in this year's BC.

Semantics.

It looked like she broke into the side of the starting gate to me, and that caused her breaking a bit awkwardly and a half length to a length slow.

You said multiple things.

"I don't believe they are confident she can pass horses, else I highly doubt they would have sent her after On Fire Baby as aggressively as they did in the Personal Ensign."

I think it is probable that is what they think.


"I would guess that, in retrospect, they wish they had sent her harder in the Beldame."

Absolutely. Of course.


"She may be braver at a higher cruising speed."

I don't agree.


Yeah. We have a slight difference of opinion. I think she is only vulnerable if she is ridden the same way she has been. Which does make 'what her connections think' relevant.

One of these years, we will have in-race exchange wagering...and we can trade and place bets after the opening quarter and half mile are completed ...and that will remove the 'what her connections think' equation right out of the gamble.

Stumbling is not semantics. She either stumbled or she didn't, She didn't.

She needs to be on the lead and let loose to run as fast as she can for as long as she can. She isnt a burner, she is a grinder that can run 10 f's one paced(albeit swiftly). The minute she takes back its over. Slowing down the pace is also useless with her as she has no second gear and never re-breaks. She is the female version of Dunkirk

Ok in the last 23 months, my point was since she has aged she has lacked stretch punch to rally past horses.

She was a lot better filly in 2011 then she is in 2013

This is why I normally just say "didn't have a clean start"

Durkin said she stumbled, you said she bobbled, it looked to me like she grazed into the side of the gate causing her to brake awkwardly.

Either way, it cost her about a half length to a length worth of early position.

No, YOU said she stumbled.

Just say it...." I was wrong."

Yeah, dude. You're right, she so very clearly only bobbled.

My bad.

Won't ever happen again.