Curse of Belmont Stakes suck-up closers continues
 

History shows that Belmont Stakes closers who benefit from a big setup are extremely overrated in subsequent starts. In fact, they have a gruesome record in subsequent starts.

The Equibase.com charts only go back to 1991. Here are the best performers of the horses who raced 5 lengths or more back, after a half mile was complete, in the years where the pace was 48.00 or faster. Note their subsequent performances.

* 2013: 46.66 half (Orb had the best result of any horse 5 lengths or more back of it, he "rallied" from 12 lengths back and finished 3rd. He's failed in two subsequent starts. He was third in the Travers at 3/1 and was 8th beaten a pole in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Incognito had the second best result of any horse in the race who closed from five or more back. He hasn't returned.)

* 2009: 47.13 half (Mine That Bird had the best result of any horse 5 lengths or more back of it, he finished 3rd. He was winless in all 7 subsequent starts, his best result a 3rd in the West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer. Luv Gov, who finished 5th of 10, had the second best result of any horse 5 or more lengths back. With no layoff lines, he was no better than 3rd in each of next eight starts, before finally winning a claiming race at Oaklawn Park as a 4-year-old. It was his third try at the claiming level)

* 2006: 47.36 half (winner Jazil was dead last, and 10+ back after a half. He never won another race. He was 2nd at 2/5 and 2nd at 4/5 in two allowance races and finished 12th in the Elkhorn. Oh So Awesome, 5th of 12 in the Belmont had the second best result of the closers. He was no better than 3rd in each of his next 8 starts, before finally winning a claiming race at Fair Grounds.)

* 2001: 48.00 half (Monarchos was 5.25 lengths back after a half and finished 3rd. He was 3rd at odds of 1/2 in a GP allowance and was retired never winning again. Dollar Bill, 7.25 lengths back, finished 4th with the second best result. He was 1-for-11 the rest of his career, the lone win coming by a neck in ALW race at Fair Grounds at odds of 4/5)

* 1999: 47.60 half (Best of Luck had the best result of anyone 5 lengths or more back. He closed from 12+ lengths back to finish 4th in the field. He was off the board in the Jim Dandy at 3/1 next out and was 1-for-11 with 3 alw defeats afterwards. Pineaff, the second best result of anyone more than 5 lengths back, finished 3rd at 3/1 in the Pennsylvania Derby next out. He was also 3rd in the Super Derby, and never won another race)

* 1996: 46.80 half (winner Editor's Note was 11.5 lengths after a half and ran down Skip Away in the stretch to win. He was off the board in both the Jim Dandy and Travers -- and was 2-for-14 the rest of his career with one win coming at the ALW level. My Flag closed from 13.5 lengths back for 3rd, splitting pace pressers Skip Away (2nd) and Louis Quatorze (4th) -- she was 2-for-9 against fillies the rest of her career. Both wins were Grade 1 wins, but they came at odds of 1/5 and odds of 3/5. Meanwhile, Skip Away and Louis split Cigar going 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup later that year)

* 1994: 47.40 half mile (Only a six horse field, and amazingly no one was 5 lengths or more back after a half mile. Signal Tap almost was, he closed from dead last to finish 4th beaten six lengths. He was beaten in all of his next six starts. Five of them at the ALW level -- and the lone stakes try a 7th place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby as the second choice in the betting)

* 1992: 47.00 half mile (My Memories had the best result of any horse 5 lengths of more back. He closed strongly to finish 2nd beaten less than a length by winner A. P. Indy. He was a badly beaten favorite when off the board in the Jim Dandy next out and never better than 6th in all five starts afterwards. Cristofori had the second best result of any closer, he finished 4th to A. P. Indy in the field of 11. He was never better than 3rd each time for the rest of his career. In fact, he was defeated six times at the allowance level and retired with a 2-for-15 record, both wins coming before the Belmont Stakes)

* 1991: 46.60 half mile (Strike The Gold had the best result. He was 13.75 lengths back after a half and surged late to finish 2nd by a head. He was defeated in each of his next 10 starts, six of those defeats coming as the post time favorite. Nine times he was 4/1 or less over the 10 race losing streak. Quintana finished 6th of 11, and had the second best result of any horse in the race who was 5 or more back after a half. He lost every single one of his next 16 starts after the Belmont Stakes! He finally won a claiming race at Santa Anita to snap the losing streak.

Orb looks like 9 furlongs is a limit to him...he was aided by the slop to get 10 panels, not unlike Super Saver...Has been tired at any distance since...Just not as good as perceived after a nice effort in the Derby....of which the horses who ran directly underneath him have done nothing since. Needs more water and aroma therapy down at Fair Hill me thinks.

I realize that he was wide against a rail favoring track in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and he didn't get much of a pace setup either, and he was in with legit older males, but I just don't think Orb will be winning any major races anytime soon.

It's amazing that a legend came be born simply by...

* Narrowly edging out Violence after he chased a run-off Majestic Hussar in a two-turn race that melted down. Violence came out of the race seriously injured, but anyone who doesn't think he was the better horse that day is incompetent.

* Winning the Florida Derby in a final time almost 2 full seconds slower than a blowout performance in the Gulfstream Oaks, by a 3-year-old filly, on the same day, over the same surface, at the same distance. I've studied result charts for every champion quality colt since the 1890's ... that stuff never happens to them. It's extremely rare when they win a top race where a 3yo filly goes 2 lengths faster...12? never.

* Winning the Derby in a +30 pace meltdown with Golden Soul second.

This is all it takes to earn comparisons to Easy Goer from no less of an authority than the Associated Press.

I hope his connections keep running tests looking for a health problem, but I think his problem on Saturday was: the bias, the pace, the competition, and most of all, Orb's genuine lack of ability as it relates to being a top class dirt horse of all-ages.

People are desperate for a Triple Crown. It tinges everything they feel and Shug looks like he wants to hug you when he talks...but it takes the horse, not the story.

:tro::tro:

Fortunately, those allowance races didn't go, forcing Shug to enter the Fountain of Youth and challenge Violence. Something he said he really didn't want to do, even after winning the Kentucky Derby.

Golden Soul would be the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner had Shug not hand his hand forced with Orb, winning the FoY.

I love Shug and he's an incredibly honest person and certainly a legendary trainer. He has a very interesting A. P. Indy two-year-old who goes in the Champagne.

Did someone say Jazil?! :D :{>:

This race just makes me instantly happy, what a grand day it was!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvJ-OqfDenQ

Did Honor Code break the AP INDY SPA curse?

No. I wrote about it here:


http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...f_A_P_Indy_123

Really excited to see him vs Havana this Saturday. That Havana race has not been as good as it looked on paper, right afterwards. Im curious as to who JV will ride??

The Orb we saw at Saratoga was not the same Orb that ran on Saturday. I doubt Orb will be a true G1 handicap horse ever at this point but his effort on Saturday was awful.

havana< half ours

Who knows??? The race he comes out of is not looking so great anymore. Great Saturday coming, personally one of my favorites w/ the 2yr old races in NY and giant day at Keeneland.

:tro:

DRF report saying he is unlikely to race again this year.

Jeez I would hope so after that effort.

good thread, keep up the good work.

Excellent and useful findings, Calzone Lord. :tro:

I also enjoyed your article on Honor Code posted at Horse Racing Nation.

Thanks for doing the homework.

Thanks.

I have a new article up on HRN today about the Champagne.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo..._Champagne_123


Three very exciting prospects in that race. Over the last 15 or 20 years, so many times the very promising 2yo's don't pan out ... but still, if you enjoy 2-year-old racing you really have to really love this edition of the Champagne.

3 really exciting prospects and Dutrow winner from last weekend looks like a real colt as well.