Derby Trail Forums - 9/6: Churchill Downs (Fall Meet Opener; 4th-10th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Bit of a chess match with everyone bunched up..

Most Likely: #2 Bull Dozer 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ghost Is Clear 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Shared Property 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Hamiltonian 4-1 3rd

5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

If left alone too long, Grand Contender could wire..

Most Likely: #4 Hard Aces 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Grand Contender 6-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #1 Strike One 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Drogue 6-1 2nd

6th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Ugly group and you can sense chaos. Mogge drops, cuts and blinks with Sunset Bella and last time he did that triple whammy, Sweet Joan got beat a zot at Tampa..

SCR NOTE: Main speed Cross City coming out changes pace scenario a lot. Tamazula Rose looks like front end now but Electric Temptress may lay closer..

Most Likely: #2 Electric Temptress 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #9 Too Cool 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Sunset Bella 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Granny Grump 30-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Argumental 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Our Prize 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Turbalo 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Hondo Wando 3-1 2nd

$60 P4 Play:

4: 1-2-5-6
5: 1-4-5
6: 1-2-3-9-11
7: 6-8

4x3x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

8th:MSW, 3+, 8.5f (3, DD)

Wildly competitive group of maidens that have not lost their promise. Margolis now with Smooth Air brother Air Squadron (Curlin); 4yo Smuggler son Risky Asset (Smart Strike) SCR'D, last seen on Belmont Day undercard in Moreno's maiden-breaker, must have been privately sold to Vickie Foley by Phipps..

Most Likely: #8 Scout Leader 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Royal Warrior 6-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Arriving 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Best Request 9-2 5th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Exploring 3-1 WON-DH ($4.80)
Next Best: #8 Escape Artist 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Saint X. 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Mean Marine 15-1 7th

10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Herp 6-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #9 Runaway Pepper 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Wheemaway 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Arrived Home 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #3 Glint 8-1 7th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2-9
7: 6-8
8: 4-5-6-8-9-10
9: 1-8
10: 2-9

2x2x6x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 6-8
8: 4-5-6-8-9-10
9: 1-8
10: 2-4-5-9

2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve