8/22: Saratoga (Day 30-NSA G1 NY Turf Writers Cup H)
 

Carryover P6 was worth a robust $42k to winning plays Wednesday with the McLaughlin firster Almurra surprising the MSW 8th at a crazy 22-1 and Eascapefromreality upset Amberjack in the Albany. Early part of the day was heavily skewed towards short numbers and the early P4 hit lost $35 (!) despite the hit. Nine race card Thursday highlighted by the NSA-G1 NY Turf Writers Cup. Travers Day card was drawn Wednesday and it's outstanding..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY Turf Writers H. (NSA G1), 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Faves loom large here including defending winner Demonstrative, but I want to build my tickets through 8-1 All Together who is the most viable price option and in receipt of significant 10-20#..

Best Value: #4 All Together 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Demonstrative 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1e Sheppard entry 7-5 WON ($3.90)/3rd/8th


2nd: MCLM/$20k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Foxbeau 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Saratoga Karaoke 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Free Release 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Two Step Flor 6-1 WON ($32.20)


3rd: Alydar, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Easter Gift 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Csaba 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Vitoria Olympica 8-1 WON ($11.40)


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Some nice working Empire babies including Speed Read, a full to fast-early Cribnote..

Most Likely: #3 Polecat 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sandcat 3-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Speed Read 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Let's Discuss 12-1 6th


5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Keep a close eye on the turf courses as speed is absolutely killing it given the extended lack of rain..

Most Likely: #4 Never On Time 7-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Native Wave 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Sam's Buck 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Horvat Clan 3-1 WON ($9.30)


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-6
3: 4
4: 1-2-3
5: 2-3-4-5-7

3x1x3x5 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Going to hope that the presence of speeds and stalker-pressers produces honest results..

Most Likely: #1a Cheyenne Nation 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #4 Madris 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Z Dager 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Irish Lion 8-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Super Sky 7-5: Half to Princess Arabella has experience.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Sky Painter 6-1: KMc slipped one by Wed; Darley H/B looks OK.. WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Reign 5-1: MSW dam was fast early, goof turfer later.. 6th
Super Add: #8 Camden Jane 12-1 3rd


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (DD)

First time 4yo Malibu Yankee can stay in touch with leaders under Napravnik and get run on closers for under-radar Saville..

Best Value: #7 MALIBU YANKEE 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Free as a Bird 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Moonwalk 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Viva Rafaela 4-1 8th


9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #3 Wee Freudian 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Quick Money 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Notmydirstime 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Dreamsfonewild 12-1 WON ($24.80)


$36 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-8
7: 1-6-7
8: 3-7
9: 3-4-7-9

3x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36


Good luck!
Steve

Bridge jumping(sort of) in Steeplechase? I thought I've seen it all.

Good luck today Steve!

Please double check race 8, I think Free as a Bird is the #3, not #2 as listed.

Good job hitting that Super in the 2nd. One would think with a 32 buck horse on top it would pay more than 680 for a buck.

THX.. Small field there. Nightcap and Cheyenne Nation race were plenty juicy. Was certainly a fun day. I think I was most pleased getting to All Together in the jump stake. Wins if he had gotten through earlier inside Mr. Hot Stuff. Hope everyone did well!

$44k C/O Friday :$:

great job Steve!

I've played your jumper picks all year, can't thank you enough!

Tom,

Thanks.. appreciate it. Always liked the hoppers but have really enjoyed it since getting a handle on what makes them successful up here. Chuck's dad particularly helped me along a couple of summers ago pointing out the speed element.