Derby Trail Forums - 8/4: Saratoga (Day 15-Vanderbilt; $127k C/O)

Thoroughly spectacular afternoon at Saratoga Saturday as the 150th celebration was given a perfect day for patrons to enjoy as well as an appropriately memorable Whitney. Cross Traffic got the big race win he truly deserved after two brilliant but agonizing disappointments in the Westchester and Met Mile. Industry stalwarts in Ocala, Paul Bulmahn and his GoldMark Farm team are easy to root for and winning a race like the Whitney should contribute greatly to their attempts to bolster the regions' flagging prospects. Successful Dan and Mucho Macho Man rounded out the triple and both of their connections were pleased that their respective charges improves their seasons' momentum. Wagering wise, had a non-event, up/down day with a P3 here, exacta or trifecta there, but momentum-building was quashed by Kate is a Ten (whom Andy Serling sniffed out) and Assateague in the De La Rose. Hope all did well... A wonderful day for the 33,000+ that thronged the old spa and an equally bright morning bodes nicely for Vanderbilt Sunday as well.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lochte 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Strike It Big 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Defiant 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Easement 8-1 8th

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Acquant 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ketel Twist 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Fierce Boots 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Dance Tap 4-1 4th

3rd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Our Corybant will SCR from here hoping for the 8/10 turf sprint to go..

Most Likely: #6 Too Much Talk 5th
Next Best: #2 Road Agent WON ($3.10)
Exotics Use: #4 Meet the Mets 2nd

4th: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Majestic Hussar WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #6 Consortium 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Make a Fortune 5th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Enquete 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Malibu Angel 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Guilty Verdict 4-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6
3: 2-4-6
4: 4-6-7
5: 2-3-4

3x3x3x3 = 81 x .50 = $41

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$127k C/O starts here..

Very treacherous start to the P6 with entire field separated by about 3 lengths..

Best Value: #10 Bug Juice 12-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #9 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Dehere of the Cat 5-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Zivo 4-1 3rd

7th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Funny Money 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #1 Moonlit Sonnet 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Centrina 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Eurokay by Me 20-1 8th

8th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Difficult set to decipher..

Most Likely: #3 Strategic Missle 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Spooky Kitten 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Normandy 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Indian Splendor 6-1 2nd

9th: 29th A.G. Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Hard decision to make here for the sextet. Singling Delauney off the poor start miscue at PrM would be ideal, but all scenarios getting any of the others into the circle are plausible..

Most Likely: #3 Delauney 8-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Bahamian Squall 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Justin Phillip 5-1 WON ($8.30)

10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #1 Bell by the Ridge 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Tahoe Lake 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Tricky Hat 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #6 Majestic Raffy 10-1 -

11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #7 Campogiovanni 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sunnysider 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Eleven Bravo 5-1
Super Add: #1 Face the Race 5-2 WON ($9.00)

.10 SUPER: Key 7 with 1-4-5-8-9 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 8-9/SCR-10
7: 1-5
8: 3-9
9: 3
10: 1-3-8
11: 4-7

3x2x2x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-9
9: 1-2-3-4-5
10: 1-3-8
11: 4-5-7

2x5x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

Good luck!
Steve