Derby Trail Forums - 8/1: Saratoga (Day 12-Smithwick, Morrissey)

Was happy that I kept the investment small in Del Mar's Wednesday carryover, as the sequence was turned on its' ear by Gary Sherlock's $74.20 Passing Game. The wire job winner could only be found on 3 tickets that were worth $352k each when even money fave Athina Lee hung on in the nightcap. 5-1 Hotradamus and 6-1 Graduation winner California Chrome added to the skein's difficulty factor. At Saratoga, the day turned out as straightforward as advertised and keeping the capping simple paid off with a solid early P4 hit and assorted minor awards. Hope everyone did well. Two jump races at the Spa today including the G1 Smithwick as well as the state bred Morrissey featuring another Saratoga Snacks-Saginaw matchup..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Difficult set to separate..

Most Likely: #10 Staying On 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 All Together 8-1 WON ($12.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Albany Road 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Labonte 8-1 DNF-Lost rider

2nd: A. P. Smithwick (NSA-G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Superb match of star hoppers Demonstrative and Divine Fortune..

Most Likely: #1e Sheppard entry 9-5 2nd/3rd
Best Value: #6 Mr. Hot Stuff 10-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #3 Meganisi 15-1 7th

3rd: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Political Farce 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Dedicated Deal 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Apex 2-1 2nd

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Well-matched group..

Most Likely: #5 Native Singer 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Bernardo 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Thnxtomyuncle 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Privatize 10-1 5th

5th: MCLM/$35k, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Buckwheat 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Rapid Burn 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #4 Trusted Choice 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Carjon Carjon 15-1 8th

6th: 10th John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6,5f (P6, P3, DD)

Coach Parcells can start Hall of Fame induction weekend well if Saratoga Snacks can win in return to Spa prepping for Forego test at end of meet. 20x winner Saginaw 5/2-0-0 upstate and may not be as sharp as in '12 but is 100% racehorse and always puts out. Mine Over Matter has habit of picking up pieces of hot pace events..

Most Likely: #2 Saratoga Snacks 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Saginaw 9-5 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #4 Mine Over Matter 8-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

3: 1-2-3-4-6-7 (All)
4: 1-3-5-7
5: 1-8
6: 2-3

6x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Vindication Now 4th
Next Best: #1 Kingsford Drive 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Gamblin Fever WON-DH ($6.80)

8th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Will be interesting to see how many get taken out of this race..

Most Likely: #1e Rodriguez entry 5-2 2nd/3rd
Best Value: #10 Romancing the Gold 10-1 5th
Next Best: #11 De Price 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Demon's Deputy 30-1 4th

9th:OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Free as a Bird 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Scenario Analysis 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Rock My Heart 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Moonwalk 8-1 3rd

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

This looks super competitive with jump up performances possible from unlikely sources..

Most Likely: #1 Crafty Push 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Midnightinpositano 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Little Gabby Girl 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Shalala 15-1 7th

11th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #9 Jess Not Jesse 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #6 Beer Is Good 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Awakino Cat 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Valediction 8-1 5th

<$25 or <$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-10 (2-4-5-11)
9: 3-4-5-6
10: 1-4-5-6-9-10
11: 9

2x4x6x1 = 48 x .50 = $24
6x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve