Derby Trail Forums - 7/27: Saratoga (Day 8-Diana, Prioress, Jim Dandy)

Though both P4's ended up with smallish returns ($70 early; $90 late), my ham-handed effort building tickets left the breakeven money on the table. Had way too much confidence in Howie's Tiz (3rd) and not enough in Mitch Friedman's Read the Research (4th) as the single/spread approach needed to be reversed in that middle portion of the quad. Later, though losing favorite Quiet Ending to the gate scratch took a major option away, there was still no excuse for omitting Ward-Smith winner To My Valentine as an include in the open turf sprint 9th. It was a beautiful afternoon at the Spa but there wasn't much sunshine at the windows overall. Hope you did OK. Diana-Prioress-Jim Dandy Saturday and it should be a terrific day..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/S-ALW, 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Have plenty of respect for Caixa Electronica, but there are several here (Point Taken, Tuvia's Force, Magic Harbor especially) capable of beating him with their best or close to it..

Best Value: #3 Point Taken 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Caixa Electronica 8-5 WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #5 Tuvia's Force 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Indy's Scent 20-1 8th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed Friday with Nick Tammaro & Mike Welsch, a seemingly open baby race going two turns on the lawn. Nick is looking to the Chad Brown side of the Kitten entry and with Rosario double-named, only one runs. Note you will get an added bonus of Maker's 1x Bold Visionary when either Kitten SCR's. Welsch likes the way McPeek's Stroll to Victory has worked leading up to the debut and I think Susan Cooley's 20-1 Nice Way has a license to excel with the turf and stretchout move being out of Wheatley Way. Fun race. Watch board for added clues..

Most Likely: #1a Bobby's Kitten 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Nice Way 20-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Stroll to Victory 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Best Case Scenario 3-1 WON ($8.20)

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sky Drama 5-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Twang 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #4 Justin Nguyen 12-1 2nd

4th: MSW, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Supreme Commander 7-2 8th
Best Value: #2 Parnelli 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Unitarian 5-2 WON ($6.10)
Exotics Use: #8 Mr. Jenny 8-1 3rd

5th: 11th Proiress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Kauai Katie certainly your likely winner, but be very aware of the So. FL shipper Wildcat Lily who showed tremendous tenacity annexing the Azalea. So Many Ways turns back on strip where she opened her career with 2 wins and Irish Lute could be the beneficiary of a meltdown..

Most Likely: #7 Kauai Katie 1-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Wildcat Lily 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 So Many Ways 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Irish Lute 10-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-5-7
3: 3-6
4: 1-2-6-8
5: 2-5-7

4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Wild 14 horse sprint and surprisingly little raw speed signed on. Castellano had been on pacesetter Perfect Trippi last 4 starts, yet agent Musiker opts here for equally quick-ish Shankopotomus. The pair could duel. Jacobson excels in these events and offers rock solid Alcomatch and ouchy Equivocation here. Veteran Laysh Laysh Laysh goes first time Ness and adds hustling Saez. One notable price idea here may be Butch Reid's Billy One Lite. It costs money to ship here from Philadelphia and with plenty of options in PA and MD, savvy Reid comes here looking for a share of the $40k purse..

Most Likely: #2 Laysh Laysh Laysh 6-1 11th
Best Value: #5 Billy One Lite 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Alcomatch 4-1 WON ($8.90)
Super Add: #7 Shankopotamus 8-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Balthazar (Romans) and King Balthasar (KMc) end up in the same race. ML choice Favor Factor isn't any better than the next half dozen here. That was a very nice return to the races for Donk's Indy Sea after nearly 14 months away..

Most Likely: #2 Indy Sea 9-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Lead Singer 15-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Box Office 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #4 Balthazar 10-1 2nd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sachem Spirit 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Majestic Raffy 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Film Shot 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Kris Royal 5-1 10th

9th: 75th Diana (G1), 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Departure of Dayatthespa makes Laughing that much more eligible for an upset here..

Most Likely: #2 Stephanie's Kitten 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Laughing 12-1 WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #5 Centre Court 5-2 5th

10th: 50th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Excellent assembly for this traditional Travers prep and with at least 4 pacesetters or prompters involved, sure feels likely to invite a closer or two to visit late. Dan Peitz' Shadwell colt has the most upside of the off pace runners and will save all the ground..

Best Value: #1 Bashaar 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Palace Malice 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Code West 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Mylute 7-2 8th

11th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely:: #10 Christiesborntorun 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Shmooz Talker 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Yield Bogey 4-1 -
Exotics Use: #5 Brown Indian 8-1 -

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-8
9: 2-4
10: 1-2-5-8
11: 3-5-6-9-10

3x2x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60

Good luck!
Steve