Derby Trail Forums - 7/26: Saratoga (Day 7-Curlin)

Lost the complete recap and don't have time to repeat it, but suffice to say Thursday provided a rebound from Wednesday's misguided attack of the Saratoga carryover card. Late P4 ($289), big 6th-8th P3 ($281) and Quick Call tri ($195) drove the afternoon high into the plus column after I botched the early quad omitting Clear Pasaj (a horse I like a lot) out of the plays. Hope everyone did well. Nice Friday action east and west ahead of a weekend that is threatened slightly by weather concerns..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/$100k, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

There's nothing scary about the favorites and Saturday's Charm will get a nice pace set up here..

Most Likely: #2 Saturday's Charm 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Currency Swap 5-2 3rd

2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

A lot of hungry types dropping down here..

Most Likely: #6 Seven Dreams 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Unbroken Dream 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Tanglewood Tale 5-1 WON ($17.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Revealing Moment 5-1 2nd

3rd: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Anderson still believes as Rosario sticks and Howie's Tiz should like the 9 panels. Zito judicious with addition of the hood and Dyker Beach may be ideal candidate..

Most Likely: #6 Howie's Tiz 7-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Dyker Beach 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 King of Broadway 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Sliver and Onions 3-1 WON ($7.50)

4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Read the Research 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Currency Union 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Run a Dubb Dubb 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Nothing But Air 4-1 3rd

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Wildly intriguing group of state bred maidens featuring prices drawn well inside and eligible to set off fireworks..

Best Value: #6 Hooked Again 30-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Sophie's Turn 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 SCR
Super Add: #8 Sakonnet Point 15-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7-9
3: 6
4: 1-2-3-4
5: 1-2-3-4-5/SCR-6-8-10

3x1x4x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Bernie's Best 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Gridiron Great 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1a Ella's Kitten 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Present Course 5-1 4th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Ugly group..

Most Likely: #1 Centrina 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #2 Delightful Dawn 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ten K Cat 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 G. A. Empress 20-1 6th

8th: Curlin, 3yo, 9g (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Darley entry 5-2 WON ($4.80)/DQ'd-5th
Best Value: #3 Bad Hombre 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Proud Strike 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Edge of Reality 4-1 3rd

9th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Fun turf sprint group..

Most Likely: #4 Late SCR-Gate
Best Value: #9 Tiz Teresa 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Lawless Miss 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Jonata 20-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Sweet N Discreet 10-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Next Best: #11 Coach Royal 2-1 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Shertzer 7-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Mr Algebra 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Griffin Rock 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-5
8: 1-3
9: 2-4/SCR-7-9-10
10: 4-6-9-11-12

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve