Derby Trail Forums - 7/20: Saratoga (Day 2-CCAOaks; Shuvee)

Hot but fun day opening for the Spa with a food number of ideas coming to fruition with $14.20 Short Shrift and $24.80 turnback winner New Line anchoring the action. Short timing to turn around the Saturday opinions... Hope everyone got off the mark well Friday!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Faves Moonlit Sonnet and Heart of New York are solid enough, but it's a state bred turf route, so you're compelled to use viable prices. Mela Dramatically has the same scenario for Motion here that opening day 1st race runner up I'll Call had saving ground inside. Maragh gets call with Prado at Finger Lakes today for Terranova..

Most Likely: #1 Mela Dramatically 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Moonlit Sonnet 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Palace Dreams 6-1 WON ($15.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Heart of New York 3-1 3rd

2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Insighting 5-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Downgoesfrazier 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Asset Inflation 3-1 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #9 Slimshady 12-1 7th

3rd: My Princess Jess, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Like the De La Rose, a stakes for quality missies that haven't got black type win this year. Wide, wide open and note there is a fair amount of speed involved. In answer to speculation on air Friday, Joe Rocco Jr. is indeed part of the Saratoga jockey colony this summer..

Best Value: #5 Miss Squeal 15-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Wave Theory 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Silsita 10-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #2 Kitten's Queen 8-1 6th

4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Balanced, tough to figure group of older F&M's dashing. Firsters demand attention and anyone else doing something different (1st turf; 1st start at 3, etc.) feels useful. Note that Rice can get 13-AE Pie's First Lady (5-2) in to body of race if she SCR's Ivana Pucker..

Best Value: #7 Amber Morning 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Rosalie's Pleasure Late SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Bileaps and Bounds 15-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Echluath 10-1 7th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Always awkward for me when a Dee Tee runner is involved and Toy Cannon returns here from slightly maddening downstate campaign. Big, obstreperous gelding needs pace up front and perfect handling from quixotic pilot to succeed but price may be more inviting today than 3-2 and 7-2 disappointments this spring..

Most Likely: #2 Toy Cannon 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Tycoon Cat 12-1 WON ($19.60)
Next Best: #11 Poliziotto 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Read the Proposal 10-1 12th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-5-6
3: 5-7-8
4: 3-7-9-11
5: 2-9-11-12

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Rode 7f turnback victory of Mott's New Line to juicy Day 1 P3 hits, but barn's Power World has more challenging assignment here stretching out to the trip from the tricky rail draw. Integrity feels as likely to regress as to repeat big effort..

Most Likely: #1 Power World 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Blind Hope 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Leave of Absence 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Integrity 2-1 6th

7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Yeesh.. Seven -- at least -- of the 13 can win. There's plenty of pace on here so collapse distinctly possible. Don't be shy about swinging for the fences here..

Best Value: #10 Charlie's Punch 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Soul House 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Crackerjack Jones 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #4 Even Got Quiet 6-1 3rd

8th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Excellent cast of elder MDN's that still have upside including debuting Scam, Phipps' Giant's Causeway colt out of Mother Goose/CCAO winner Smuggler (herself the daughter of Inside Information)..

Most Likely: #7 Charlie's Picnic 5-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Tony D 20-1 12th
Next Best: #3 Apex 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Scam 12-1 3rd

9th: 37th Shuvee H. (G3), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Zenyatta sister Eblouissante apparently will run here and why not? Race goes through Padua mare Authenticity. Unless there's a change, SCR Summer Applause who is running in Delaware versus Royal Delta..

Most Likely: #7 Authenticity 7-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Royal Lahaina 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Eblouissante 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Flashy American 12-1 3rd

10th: 97th Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Bit of a chess match here between stablemates Unlimited Budget and Princess of Sylmar. Pletcher has a way of spreading these kinds of laurels around and Unlimited Budget is more tactical than the KY Oaks heroine..

Most Likely: #3 Unlimited Budget 2-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Princess of Sylmar 9-5 WON ($6.30)
Exotics Use: #2 Cue the Moon 10-1 4th

11th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Major Fire Sale! Everything Must Go! Lost Our Lease! Act Now! Drum Roll, Road Agent, Velvet Cap, etc., being given away..

Most Likely: #2 Vee's Accolade 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Ludo Bagman 8-1 9th
Next Best: #12 Velvet Cap 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Drum Roll 4-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-4-7-8-11
9: 1-3-7
10: 3-4
11: 2-3-7-12

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve