Derby Trail Forums - 5/27: Belmont Park ($37k C/O)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Fun group. Bond's Ornellia the filly to beat but there are a few double digit missies well within range of her and worth using..

Most Likely: #10 Ornellia 5-2 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #8 Desert Bliss 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Satin Sheeks 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Rakin Gold 12-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$37k C/O starts here..

Quite a start to the P6 sequence with a number of firsters from serious debut outfits (Sliver and Onions/Hushion; Eastwood/Mariena; Mr. O'Leary/Clement; Golden Lad/Pletcher) v. experienced players Bocelli (Stay Thirsty half from Shirreffs), Dedicated Deal (Serpe), Welter Weight (Pletcher) and High Five Again (Awesome Feather full brother from Zito). Very tricky reads..

Most Likely: #11 Welter Weight 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Dedicated Deal 15-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Eastwood 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Mr. O'Leary 6-1 4th

7th: 19th Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Six pack of rock solid fillies for this and big tickets will reach for the 'all' button with none of them an easy toss. There's only Discreet Marq signed on as clear pace, so staying within striking distance will be a necessity for the rest. Wave Theory has murky lines after dumping Leparoux in the Edgewood and having no chance in the Ashland, but gets Johnny V and could sit the right trip. Catalano is winning everywhere and had plenty of options for Kitten's Queen. Can boost exotics..

Most Likely #1 Wave Theory 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Discreet Marq 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #6 Kitten's Queen 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Caroline Thomas 5-1 5th

8th: 45th Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Another tactical mystery with the Jones' girls (Joyful Victory & Believe You Can) bracketing 4 accomplished rivals. PP's say that Believe You Can needs lead to win. Both Pletcher gals fit here of course and Tiz Miz Sue will have targets. 20-1 Centring is 4/1-3-0 over this demanding surface. Terrific race..

Best Value: #5 Disposablepleasure 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Authenticity 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz Miz Sue 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #1 Joyful Victory 7-5 6th

9th: 83rd Acorn (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Superb match between Pletcher's pure sprinting Kauai Katie and Baffert's cutback player Midnight Lucky. Mott's in-between type Close Hatches is OK and Bond's Momentary Magic is under the radar type that can charge the exotics. Another terrific race..

Most Likely: #5 Midnight Lucky 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #1 Kauai Katie 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Close Hatches 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Momentary Magic 15-1 6th

10th: 120th Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (DD)

Perennially one of the year's best races. Interesting group with top pair from the Westchester the major attractions and Carter cast signed on as co-stars..

Most Likely: #6 Flat Out 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Cross Traffic 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Fed Biz 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Sahara Sky 6-1 WON ($11.60)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-4-5-6
8: 1-2-3-5
9: 5
10: 1-2-5-6-7-9

6x4x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/2/5/7) Paid $202.50

11th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #3 Mr Algebra 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Suilleabhain 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Mississippi Duel 5-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Northern Tripp 15-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 5-9-11
7: 1-2
8: 3-5
9: 5
10: 1-6
11: 3-4-5

3x2x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-5
9: 1-5-6
10: 1-6-9
11: 3-4-5-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve