Oxbow
 

I'm surprised he's the 8th choice in the double and currently 8th choice in the Preakness betting.

I've had a bias against trainer D. Wayne Lukas for a long time, solely because of his consistent very low ROI over the last 15 years.

Oxbow has some compelling factors that interest me.

Here are his recent pace figures and final time figures:





In the Kentucky Derby, Oxbow chased a pace that earned a figure of 112 on a 100 point scale. The race shape was a ridiculous +30 , meaning the ideal position to run an efficient race was about 20 lengths back.

Oxbow's pace figure of 106 was the fastest of his life by 11 points, he ran a 95 in last years Hollywood Futurity and faded to finish 4th beaten 10 lengths.

In his very next start after the Hollywood Futurity, Oxbow got no early pressure, and was able to get away with a pace figure of just 70 in the Lecomte Stake at the Fair Grounds.

Oxbow parlayed the lack of early pressure into an 11.5 length win at odds of 9/2. The second place finisher in the Lecomte, Golden Soul, would later finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.

I believe Oxbow ran the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby. However, his performance was masked by a distant 6th place result.

Oxbow's Pedigree is VERY late developing.

His sire Awesome Again didn't even break his maiden until June of his 3yo season...and didn't reach his peak until his perfect 4-year-old season




Oxbow's dam Tizamazing is a FULL sister to both Tiznow and Budroyale.

Tiznow was also late developing, he didn't break his maiden until May 31st of his 3-year-old season:




Budroyale raced more than a dozen times for a claiming tag, and developed into a horse that finished 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic at age 6.


Oxbow has an extremely anti-precocious pedigree. In his career debut, he did not finish the race and was vanned off.

This horse doesn't have the luxury that horses like slow developers Awesome Again and Tiznow were afforded.

He has been pushed and campaigned hard from the outset, and has performed at a high level even though his pedigree suggests late maturity.

The Preakness will mark Oxbow's 10th start in just 7 months. By comparison, Tiznow was a 0-for-2 maiden at this point in his 3yo season. Awesome Again was one week removed from a 3rd place finish in a maiden race at this point in his 3-year-old season.

I normally like to cross DWL horses out, but Oxbow is a dangerous contender today if the lemon hasn't been squeezed dry. With more patient handling, this could have been an absolute top flight handicap horse.

IMO, this is a must use horse today given his likely odds. He might burn-out by the 5/8's, but no shame in trying to get him on the board somewhere.

I think Oxbow cooks himself today. Will Take Charge is the Lukas horse I'm interested in today, though his in-and-out form scares me some. I think there's enough pace to run at, and Mike Smith will do everything necessary to keep him from an ounce of trouble, even if it means scraping the outside rail on the turn and stretch.

It would be interesting to see what kind of jump horses like these 2 and also Optimizer(I know he's 4) would make if switched to Pletcher's barn or someone like that.

I think he runs big if Stevens can get him to relax even a little.

To put in perspective how difficult it is to run a 106 pace figure while chasing a run-off leader ... here is Fort Larned's performance in the Stephen Foster last year ... he and Wise Dan chased a 104 pace and both were defeated.






In Fort Larned's case, being bumped early and running a too fast for comfort 102 pace figure, was enough to result in a dismal performance.

Fort Larned came back two weeks later, relaxed early, and beat Successful Dan in a race that marked a 28 point Beyer improvement.

Thank you thank you!!!!!!!

Nice thread Douglas.

Lukas is the greatest ever. Love to see him win after everyone has counted his career over.

Thanks.

And thank God Itsmyluckyday held 2nd!

An admirable horse.

Double of Lukas, Stevens and Calumet:

$2 Double (10/6) Paid $557.40

Very nice, Doug.

I guess he's the first bay roan to win the Preakness (?). :D

Not to boost his ego cause God knows he does not need it but I hope people pay attention to what Doug teaches in some of these threads, not because Oxbow won, but because this and the other pace situations happen every day, and many times in easier races than this.

Nice job.

Yay Doug!

And here's hoping this takes some more of the sting out of Luck getting cancelled for Gary Stevens. ;)

Good call Doug...pace makes the race....

I wish I read this stuff this morning! Nice work Calzone Doug!

Great job Doug!

Well done. I couldn't get past the Wayne Lukas factor but congrats on the nice score.

Paul

The "13 Triple Crown Wins" factor?

Perhaps my favorite post ever.